Round 4 of the NRL is upon us with a host of injury and team changes presenting plenty of opportunity for Club 20 punters to cash in on some juicy exotics markets. 

We dipped our toes back into the post-covid punting pond last weekend but the less said about that the better after a blend of frighteningly bad luck, overconfidence and general shitness combined for a dirty Round 3. 

But that was in the before times, in the long long ago, Round 4 is the wave of the future!!

Enjoy your Rugba Leeg! 

Broncos v Roosters

Kyle Flanagan – Most Tackles @ 5.00

The field is Flegler, Croft, Boyd, Keary, Manu and our boy Flanagan who has a 25-30 tackle game in him here. Flegler should continue to see dramatically reduced game time with Lodge second up which makes it a race of the halves and for mine Flanagan is the clear favourite despite the price.  Averaging 26 tackles in first three rounds (including a 29 tackle, 5 missed tackle game in Round 2). 

Panthers v Warriors

Brian To’o – Most Meters @ 5.50

One of our bad beats in Round 3, the young penny winger ran for over 300m and still didn’t win the market at a very juicy price of 7-1. In slightly to 5’s and up against RTS, Maumalo, Aekins, Mansour and Fisher-Harris, we see this as a race in two with Mansour the only one who is likely to threaten. 

The way To’o carried the ball back was so impressive, his 300m includes not one single linebreak, they were all one off the ruck in his own half whereas Mansour enjoyed several half breaks and one clean 45-50m run. Bookies have gravitated to the names of RTS and Mansour but we can’t knock this last start effort of the young Samoan. 

Overs (38.5) @ 1.95

Much was made on social media about the Totals in Round 3 all falling under despite free-flowing play. Myriad last-passes were dropped or bombed in Round 3, that will be cleaned up this round. There has been an incremental decrease in totals which is too tempting for us especially in a game like this. 

Eels v Sea Eagles

Overs (40.5) @ 1.95

There is points in these two sides and despite the mutual hatred, I can see this game going up and down the ground for 80mins with multiple six-again calls fueling effective attacking raids. 

Cowboys v Sharks

Francis Molo – Most Tackles @ 21.00

Hear us out! Obviously it’s a roughy but it is nowhere near as rough as it first appears with no Taumalolo in the side. Maguire shifts to lock but is not included in this market which means Molo has to beat home Wade Graham, Coen Hess, Aaron Woods, Briton Nikore and Jordan McLean. Only Nikore cleared 30 tackles last week (37). 

Molo will view this as his chance to really impress and he will be in everything and there is a decent chance he gets 45-50mins here putting him in the 30+ tackles conversation. Low 30’s could take this down. 

Josh Maguire – Most Meters @ 2.75

This looks as close to free money as we will get all weekend. Maguire got 66 minutes last week from the front row in a game where the Cows didn’t need him to be there. Here he is playing lock in a game they desperately need quality time and carries out of him in Lolo’s absence. Market features Kyle Feldt, Josh Dugan, Jesse Ramien, Aaron Woods and Ersan Masters – not exactly a group of renowned meter eaters. Should walk into 200+ which, short of a freak long range try by one of the backs, looks more than enough. 

Matt Moylan – Try @ 4.50

If you find a fantasy market or tackle market for Moylan, have a really good look at the overs because the former custodian looked very lively at second receiver on Saturday night in his 46mins. Looked fast too. I can see Moylan getting opportunities close to the line both in set plays and from an offload where he can use his speed and step to find the try line. Well priced and will get 80mins. 

Overs (39.5) @ 1.90

Dry track, two attacking teams, it is just a recipe for points and as we mentioned earlier, the offense will be much crisper than it was last week whilst the rules will remain, holes and gaps will be found this week that were closed last week. 

Raiders v Knights

Sione Mata’utia – Most Tackles @ 6.50

There is a chance this game will be rain effected which could dramatically change the dynamic, so maybe wait until closer to kick off here but whatever the weather does, the Raiders are likely to have the bulk of possession. Newcastle were valiant but 90mins last Sunday with 14.5men will take a toll. 

This market has David Klemmer as favourite and also includes Joseph Tapine, Elliot Whitehead, Daniel Saifiti and Josh Papali. Mata’utia got through 45 tackles last Sunday. He ran for just 50m in 90 mins of footy so clearly he prioritized his defence. Minutes from the Knights props were inflated, won’t be repeated. Like the value here. 

Kalyn Ponga – Most Meters @ 2.80

One of the bets of the round if Ponga plays. Just eats the meters, rarely dumps off to his wingers on kick returns and is highly involved in 4th and 5th tackle plays as well. Up against Josh Papali, Bailey Simonsson, Edrick Lee, Daniel Saifiti and Jack Wighton. Rain or shine it looks easy money. 

Titans v Tigers

Tigers -6.5 @ 1.90

Titans are shit. That is all. 

Jai Arrow – Most Tackles @ 3.75

Probably the bet of the round for mine. Tackling machine. Slight HIA stopped him from cracking 50+ last start from 60 odd minutes. Great baseline. Should smash that here though as Jia Whitbread, Jarrod Wallace and Nathan Peats have all been unceremoniously dropped. Three middle forwards all gone. Should give Arrow a path to 80 minutes and 60+ tackles pretty comfortably sans a head knock. 

He is up against Alex Twal who is the favourite in the market, but any team playing the Titans just has the ball more and therefore doesn’t tackle as much. This is known. Kevin Proctor, Luciano Leilua, Moeki F (that guy) and Luke Garner the also-rans. 

Alex Twal – Most Meters @ 5.00

Like the value about Twal here. Should see big minutes and will dominate the middle meters against an undersized Titans pack. Robert Jennings the danger as the Titans can leak multiple long rangers, but happy to take the safety of a 160m+ game from Twal at the price. 

Best Bets

Seems fashionable these days to give a condensed ‘Top 3’ for those punters too sensible not brave enough to follow me in across the board. Here’s my best three of Round 3.

• Jai Arrow Most Tackles @ 3.75

• Kayln Ponga Most Meters @ 2.80

• Josh Maguire Most meters @ 2.80

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