Previewing Potential Week One AFL Finals Matchups

Our eight finalists for the 2018 finals are almost certainly set in stone - barring Geelong losing to the Suns at home – but there will still be plenty of jostling for top four spots and home finals in round 23. Like most footy fans, we have already looked ahead to the first week of the finals, speculating which tantalising matchups we will be treated to. What better way to pass a long week in the office than discussing the ‘what ifs’ of September?

The media last week was rife with excitement (or dread, depending on which state you live in) over the potential of four week one finals at the MCG for the first time in history. But just how likely is it?

We here at Stats Insider have run the simulations over the final nine games of the home and away season to come up with a prediction of who we will be going head-to-head in week one.

Note: the order of teams is not a prediction of who will be hosting – simply the likelihood of the two sides playing one another.

Most Likely Matchups

West Coast vs Collingwood (66.6%)

With the Pies and Eagles a 75% and 50% chance of winning their respective matches this weekend, and their handy percentages, we are comfortably sure this will be one of the two qualifying finals. With a win over the Lions, West Coast can take this final to Perth – where Collingwood have not won since 2009. West Coast may not mind an away final given the way they dismantled Collingwood in Melbourne just six weeks ago.

Melbourne vs Geelong (59.51%)

Perhaps the most exciting of the potential finals given their two thrillers this year. We consider Melbourne a 68% chance to defeat the Giants and Geelong a 95% chance to get the job done against the Suns, which would most likely leave them in fifth and eighth respectively. Geelong triumphed in both clashes with Melbourne by three and two points, which sets us up for a mouthwatering elimination final.

Richmond vs Sydney (51.35%)

Richmond have their home final locked in with the minor premiership, which only leaves their opponent to be determined. The model has Sydney defeating Hawthorn by six points at a wet SCG, which sends them into fourth place (barring Collingwood losing). Richmond comfortably defeated Sydney in their last meeting, albeit at Etihad. Sydney have won their last three against Richmond at the home of football, so this would by no means be a walkover.

GWS vs Hawthorn (40.59%)

Should the Hawks lose to the Swans as we (narrowly) expect, they drop out of the top four. Their inferior percentage could see them drop to sixth, even seventh if GWS can pinch an upset win over Melbourne. Either way, we see a Giants-Hawks final at either the MCG or Sydney Showgrounds as a fairly likely scenario. The Giants are 3-0 over Hawthorn in Sydney and 0-2 in Melbourne, so a home ground advantage could be huge.

Other Potential Matchups

Sydney vs GWS (28.08%)

A Sydney derby final? Yes please! We’ve been treated to just one in six previous seasons (2016), where the Giants turned a two-point halftime advantage into a 36-point qualifying final win. A cut-throat final would be a very tasty spectacle. Should Hawthorn knock off the Swans (43% chance) and Melbourne win as expected, we’ll have a 6^th v 7^th ‘Battle of the Bridge’.

GWS vs Melbourne (20.15%)

Geelong are heavily expected to boost their percentage against the Gold Coast on Saturday (with a 75 point victory according to the bookies), which presents them with a slight opportunity to leapfrog Melbourne into seventh place. A significant Giants victory over Melbourne could see them hosting the Dees in Sydney in an elimination final. Given the Dees are 0-2 from visits to the Showgrounds, it’s not a final they would be particularly keen on. Not as likely, but still a chance.

Hawthorn vs Geelong (15.28%)

Another very exciting prospect given the thrillers these two sides have thrown up over the past ten years. Hawthorn will be anywhere from fifth to seventh should they lose to Sydney, while Geelong have most likely locked in eighth but are a narrow chance of picking up seventh. Either way this would hopefully (and probably) be another one for the ages. Even while both clubs gradually farewelled their dynasties, they continue to produce close results. Four of the last five H2Hs have had margins of under two goals.

Whatever happens this weekend, Stats Insider will be following all the action now and through the Finals series. Make sure you're checking out our fixtures page and Match Pages for each individual game.

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