Port Adelaide vs Essendon Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 4, 2024

Port Adelaide will take on Essendon in AFL Round 4 action at Adelaide Oval on Friday, commencing at 8:10pm AEDT.

Stats Insider's best betting tips for the Port Adelaide vs Essendon game, plus the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips, are detailed in this article.

Who Will Win: Port Adelaide vs Essendon

Based on state-of-the-art computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Friday's Port Adelaide-Essendon AFL match 10,000 times.

Our independent predictive analytics model gives the Power a 77% chance of winning against the Bombers at Adelaide Oval.

More: Port Adelaide vs Essendon Match Centre

Port Adelaide vs Essendon: Odds

The current betting odds for Friday's AFL clash at Adelaide Oval are listed below:

  • Head to Head: Port Adelaide $1.24, Essendon $5.00
  • Line: Port Adelaide -25.5 ($1.89), Essendon +25.5 ($2.10)
  • Total (Over/Under 179.5 Points): Over $2.06, Under $1.89

Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.

Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, TAB currently has Port Adelaide at $1.24 and Essendon at $5.00.

The Power are listed as 25.5-point favourites against the Bombers, with odds of $1.89 currently available at TAB.

For the underdog Bombers (+25.5) to cover the line, TAB currently has odds of $2.10.

The Over/Under for total points scored has been set at 179.5 with TAB, which currently has odds for the Over at $2.06 and odds for the Under at $1.89.

According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Bombers (+25.5) have a 58% chance of covering the line, while the 179.5-point Over/Under has a 59% chance of staying Under.

More: AFL Fixture Difficulty 2024

Port Adelaide vs Essendon: Best Bets

  • Head to Head: Essendon at $5.00 with (3.3% edge)
  • Line: Essendon +25.5 at $2.10 with Betfair (58% probability) 🔥
  • Total Points: Under 179.5 at $1.89 with Betfair (59% probability) 🔥

When you see a 🔥, you know it's one of Stats Insider's best bets of the day across any sport.

Our Port Adelaide vs Essendon predictions are based on detailed modelling and gambling experience to help you place better bets with your chosen online bookie.

While the Power have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Bombers to win is our recommended option due to the 3.3% edge found when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently available.

Making use of the edges published on Stats Insider is crucial to being profitable in the long run.

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Port Adelaide vs Essendon: Prediction

Stats Insider's predicted final score for Port Adelaide vs Essendon at Adelaide Oval this Friday has P Adelaide winning 97-77.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Stats Insider has full betting coverage of Port Adelaide vs Essendon on Friday, including pre-match predictions, free betting tips, and live win probabilities.

Port Adelaide vs Essendon: Goal Kickers

Looking for Port Adelaide vs Essendon goalscorer tips? The latest data is in.

According to Stats Insider, P Adelaide's Charlie Dixon is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Port Adelaide vs Essendon.

Dixon has a 6.7% chance of kicking the first goal at Adelaide Oval, while the Power star has an 85.6% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the game.

Scroll down for the full list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.

First Goal Scorer Tips

Port Adelaide

  • Charlie Dixon: 6.7% probability
  • Todd Marshall: 6.4% probability
  • Jeremy Finlayson: 5.8% probability
  • Mitch Georgiades: 4.9% probability
  • Willie Rioli: 4.4% probability


  • Jake Stringer: 5.8% probability
  • Kyle Langford: 5.7% probability
  • Jade Gresham: 4.2% probability
  • Harrison Jones: 3.7% probability
  • Jye Menzie: 3.7% probability

Anytime Goal Kicker Tips

Port Adelaide

  • Charlie Dixon: 85.6% probability
  • Todd Marshall: 85.2% probability
  • Jeremy Finlayson: 82.7% probability
  • Mitch Georgiades: 77.6% probability
  • Willie Rioli: 72.1% probability


  • Kyle Langford: 83.6% probability
  • Jake Stringer: 81.9% probability
  • Jade Gresham: 69.9% probability
  • Harrison Jones: 66.5% probability
  • Jye Menzie: 65.5% probability

Our model updates regularly, so keep checking this page for the latest betting analysis before the Port Adelaide vs Essendon match at Adelaide Oval.

As always, see our Best Bets to get the best tips for every AFL match, plus a host of other sports that we offer predictions on.

More: AFL Player Ratings 2024

Port Adelaide vs Essendon: Preview

The AFL Round 4 clash between the Power and Bombers at Adelaide Oval is scheduled to start at 8:10pm AEDT on Friday.

All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT) unless otherwise noted.

Our Port Adelaide vs Essendon predictions have been made based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the match, carefully curated by our team of expert data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.

If you choose to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's vital that you gamble responsibly and know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

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Ryan Leaver

Ryan Leaver is a respected journalist and lifelong sports fan who is widely regarded as one of Australia's most trusted sources for accurate and up-to-date information across various sports. He holds a Bachelor's Degree in Journalism (Sport) from La Trobe University, which strengthens his credibility in the field. Ryan, who previously worked at Triple M, where he provided comprehensive coverage of the AFL and cricket, is renowned for his extensive knowledge and ability to deliver the latest insights.

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