Patriots vs Texans Prediction and Preview - NFL Divisional Round 2026
Last updated: Jan 13, 2026, 4:01PM | Published: Jan 13, 2026, 9:50AM
The New England Patriots will take on the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs at Gillette Stadium on Monday, starting at 7:00am AEDT.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Patriots vs Texans game, along with the latest betting odds and touchdown scorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Using advanced machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Monday's New England vs Houston NFL match-up 10,000 times.
Our proven predictive analytics model gives the Patriots a 63% chance of winning against the Texans at Gillette Stadium.
Patriots vs Texans: Odds
The latest Bet365 betting odds in Australia for Monday's NFL game at Gillette Stadium are shown below:
- Head to Head: Patriots $1.64, Texans $2.30
- Line: Patriots -3 ($1.91), Texans +3 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 41 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has the Patriots at $1.64 and the Texans at $2.30.
The Patriots are listed as 3-point favourites against the Texans, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the underdog Texans (+3) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 41 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the bookmakers have got it right and both the Patriots and the Texans have a 50% chance of covering the line.
The 41-point over/under is expected to go over 53% of the time.
Patriots vs Texans: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: New England at $1.64 with Bet365
- Line: Texans +3 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Over 41 at $1.91 with Bet365
Today's Patriots vs Texans betting tips are based on complex simulations and gambling intelligence to help you place more informed bets with your chosen online bookie.
Patriots vs Texans: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Patriots vs Texans at Gillette Stadium this Monday is the Patriots winning 22-19.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the New England vs Houston game on Monday, including data-driven predictions and expert tips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Patriots vs Texans: TD Scorer Tips
Who will score an anytime touchdown in Patriots vs Texans? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, New England's Rhamondre Stevenson is the most likely player to score the first touchdown in Patriots vs Texans.
Stevenson has a 10.3% chance of scoring the first TD at Gillette Stadium, while the Patriots RB has a 48.5% chance of reaching the end zone at any point in the game.
Scroll down for our full list of first touchdown scorer and anytime touchdown scorer probabilities.
First Touchdown Scorer Tips
Patriots First TD Tips
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 10.3% probability
- TreVeyon Henderson: 9.6% probability
- Hunter Henry: 6.2% probability
- Stefon Diggs: 5.6% probability
- Drake Maye: 5.3% probability
Texans First TD Tips
- Nico Collins: 9.0% probability
- Woody Marks: 8.2% probability
- Jayden Higgins: 5.6% probability
- Dalton Schultz: 4.7% probability
- Christian Kirk: 2.7% probability
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tips
Patriots Anytime TD Tips
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 48.5% probability
- TreVeyon Henderson: 46.3% probability
- Hunter Henry: 33.2% probability
- Stefon Diggs: 30.5% probability
- Drake Maye: 28.9% probability
Texans Anytime TD Tips
- Nico Collins: 39.2% probability
- Woody Marks: 36.2% probability
- Jayden Higgins: 26.6% probability
- Dalton Schultz: 22.8% probability
- Christian Kirk: 13.7% probability
Patriots-Texans Projected Player Stats
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Patriots' Drake Maye is projected for 237 passing yards. The Texans' C.J. Stroud is expected to throw for 223 yards.
Patriots Starting QB
- Drake Maye: 237 projected passing yards
Texans Starting QB
- C.J. Stroud: 223 projected passing yards
Patriots Rushing Yards
- TreVeyon Henderson: 40 projected yards
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 40 projected yards
- Drake Maye: 32 projected yards
Texans Rushing Yards
- Woody Marks: 64 projected yards
- C.J. Stroud: 14 projected yards
- Nick Chubb: 12 projected yards
Patriots Receiving Yards
- Stefon Diggs: 55 projected yards
- Hunter Henry: 42 projected yards
- Kayshon Boutte: 38 projected yards
- DeMario Douglas: 23 projected yards
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 23 projected yards
Texans Receiving Yards
- Nico Collins: 64 projected yards
- Dalton Schultz: 34 projected yards
- Jayden Higgins: 33 projected yards
- Christian Kirk: 19 projected yards
- Xavier Hutchinson: 16 projected yards
Our model updates regularly, so refresh this page for the latest betting tips before the New England vs Houston game.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets to get the best tips for every NFL game, plus predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Patriots vs Texans: Essential Details
The match-up between the Patriots and Texans at Gillette Stadium is scheduled to start at 7:00am AEDT on Monday.
- Teams: New England Patriots vs Houston Texans
- Playoff Round: NFL Divisional Round
- Date: Monday 19 January 2026
- Time: 7:00am AEDT
- Venue: Gillette Stadium
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT), unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
Our New England vs Houston predictions have been made thanks to 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our NFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, giving you the knowledge you need to make informed decisions with confidence.
If you decide to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's crucial that you gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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