Patriots vs Texans Prediction and Preview - NFL Divisional Round 2026
Last updated: Jan 18, 2026, 8:01PM | Published: Jan 13, 2026, 9:50AM
The New England Patriots will take on the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs at Gillette Stadium on Monday, starting at 7:00am AEDT.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Patriots vs Texans game, along with the latest betting odds and touchdown scorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Using advanced computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Monday's New England vs Houston NFL game 10,000 times.
Our independent predictive analytics model currently gives the Patriots a 63% chance of beating the Texans at Gillette Stadium.
Patriots vs Texans: Odds
The latest Bet365 betting odds in Australia for Monday's NFL game at Gillette Stadium are shown below:
- Head to Head: Patriots $1.56, Texans $2.50
- Line: Patriots -3.5 ($1.91), Texans +3.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 41 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has the Patriots at $1.56 and the Texans at $2.50.
The Patriots are 3.5-point favourites against the Texans, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the underdog Texans (+3.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 41 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's model, the Texans (+3.5) are predicted to cover the line 57% of the time, while the 41-point over/under is expected to go over 53% of the time.
Patriots vs Texans: Best Bets
- Head to Head: New England at $1.56 with Bet365
- Line: Texans +3.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Over 41 at $1.91 with Bet365
When you see a 🔥, that means it's one of Stats Insider's best bets of the day across all sports.
Today's Patriots vs Texans betting tips are based on market-leading simulations and gambling experience to give you the best possible advice every time.
Patriots vs Texans: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Patriots vs Texans at Gillette Stadium on Monday is the Patriots prevailing 22-19.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the New England vs Houston game on Monday, including data-driven predictions and expert tips.
Get expert analysis from the US with Dimers' in-depth Patriots vs Texans prediction.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Patriots vs Texans: TD Scorer Tips
Who will score the first touchdown in Patriots vs Texans? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, New England's Rhamondre Stevenson is the most likely player to score the first touchdown in Patriots vs Texans.
Stevenson has a 9.2% chance of scoring the first TD at Gillette Stadium, while the Patriots RB has a 39.7% chance of reaching the end zone at any point in the game.
Scroll down for the full list of first touchdown scorer and anytime touchdown scorer probabilities.
First Touchdown Scorer Tips
Patriots First TD Tips
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 9.2% probability
- TreVeyon Henderson: 8.0% probability
- Hunter Henry: 6.8% probability
- Stefon Diggs: 6.2% probability
- Drake Maye: 5.8% probability
Texans First TD Tips
- Woody Marks: 8.7% probability
- Dalton Schultz: 5.9% probability
- Jayden Higgins: 5.7% probability
- Christian Kirk: 5.2% probability
- Xavier Hutchinson: 3.8% probability
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tips
Patriots Anytime TD Tips
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 39.7% probability
- TreVeyon Henderson: 35.4% probability
- Hunter Henry: 31.0% probability
- Stefon Diggs: 28.9% probability
- Drake Maye: 27.1% probability
Texans Anytime TD Tips
- Woody Marks: 35.7% probability
- Dalton Schultz: 25.9% probability
- Jayden Higgins: 25.1% probability
- Christian Kirk: 23.2% probability
- Xavier Hutchinson: 17.7% probability
Patriots-Texans Projected Player Stats
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Patriots' Drake Maye is projected for 231 passing yards. The Texans' C.J. Stroud is expected to throw for 216 yards.
Patriots Starting QB
- Drake Maye: 231 projected passing yards
Texans Starting QB
- C.J. Stroud: 216 projected passing yards
Patriots Rushing Yards
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 42 projected yards
- TreVeyon Henderson: 38 projected yards
- Drake Maye: 35 projected yards
Texans Rushing Yards
- Woody Marks: 62 projected yards
- Nick Chubb: 22 projected yards
- C.J. Stroud: 14 projected yards
Patriots Receiving Yards
- Stefon Diggs: 54 projected yards
- Hunter Henry: 43 projected yards
- Kayshon Boutte: 38 projected yards
- DeMario Douglas: 26 projected yards
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 24 projected yards
Texans Receiving Yards
- Christian Kirk: 44 projected yards
- Dalton Schultz: 43 projected yards
- Jayden Higgins: 43 projected yards
- Xavier Hutchinson: 35 projected yards
- Jaylin Noel: 16 projected yards
Our model updates frequently, so refresh this article for the latest betting predictions before the New England vs Houston match-up.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets for the best tips on every NFL game, plus predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Patriots vs Texans: Essential Details
The match-up between the Patriots and Texans at Gillette Stadium is scheduled to start at 7:00am AEDT on Monday.
- Teams: New England Patriots vs Houston Texans
- Playoff Round: NFL Divisional Round
- Date: Monday 19 January 2026
- Time: 7:00am AEDT
- Venue: Gillette Stadium
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT), unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
Our New England vs Houston predictions are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, all curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our NFL tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you choose to use our NFL predictions for betting purposes, it's important to gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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