Patriots vs Steelers Prediction and Preview - NFL Week 3, 2025
Last updated: Sep 18, 2025, 2:27AM | Published: Sep 17, 2025, 8:23PM
The New England Patriots will take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in NFL Week 3 action at Gillette Stadium on Monday, commencing at 3:00am AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Patriots vs Steelers game, plus the latest betting odds and touchdown scorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Using advanced computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Monday's New England vs Pittsburgh NFL match-up 10,000 times.
Our proven predictive analytics model gives the Steelers a 57% chance of defeating the Patriots in Week 3 of the NFL season.
Patriots vs Steelers: Odds
The current Bet365 betting odds in Australia for Monday's NFL game at Gillette Stadium are shown below:
- Head to Head: Patriots $2.05, Steelers $1.80
- Line: Patriots +1.5 ($1.91), Steelers -1.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 44.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has the Patriots at $2.05 and the Steelers at $1.80.
The Patriots are 1.5-point underdogs against the Steelers, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the favourite Steelers (-1.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 44.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the bookies have got it right and both the Patriots and the Steelers have a 50% chance of covering the line.
The 44.5-point over/under is expected to stay under 56% of the time.
Patriots vs Steelers: Best Bets
- Head to Head: Pittsburgh at $1.80 with Bet365
- Line: Steelers -1.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Under 44.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
Our Patriots vs Steelers betting tips are based on detailed simulations and betting experience to provide you with the best possible advice every day of the year.
Patriots vs Steelers: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Patriots vs Steelers at Gillette Stadium in Week 3 is the Steelers winning 22-20.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full coverage of the New England vs Pittsburgh game in Week 3, including data-driven predictions and the best betting tips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Patriots vs Steelers: TD Scorer Tips
Who will score the first touchdown in Patriots vs Steelers? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Pittsburgh's Jaylen Warren is the most likely player to score the first TD in Patriots vs Steelers.
Warren has a 9.2% chance of scoring the first TD at Gillette Stadium, while the Steelers RB has a 40.0% chance of scoring an anytime touchdown.
Scroll down for the full list of first touchdown scorer and anytime touchdown scorer probabilities.
First Touchdown Scorer Tips
Patriots First TD Tips
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 8.5% probability
- TreVeyon Henderson: 6.0% probability
- Stefon Diggs: 4.9% probability
- Hunter Henry: 4.5% probability
- Drake Maye: 4.2% probability
Steelers First TD Tips
- Jaylen Warren: 9.2% probability
- DK Metcalf: 8.4% probability
- Kenneth Gainwell: 7.7% probability
- Calvin Austin: 5.6% probability
- Pat Freiermuth: 4.6% probability
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tips
Patriots Anytime TD Tips
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 38.9% probability
- TreVeyon Henderson: 29.4% probability
- Stefon Diggs: 24.9% probability
- Hunter Henry: 23.0% probability
- Drake Maye: 21.5% probability
Steelers Anytime TD Tips
- Jaylen Warren: 40.0% probability
- DK Metcalf: 37.1% probability
- Kenneth Gainwell: 34.7% probability
- Calvin Austin: 26.6% probability
- Pat Freiermuth: 22.5% probability
Patriots-Steelers Projected Player Stats
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Patriots' Drake Maye is projected for 228 passing yards, while the Steelers' Aaron Rodgers is expected to throw for 230 yards.
Patriots Starting QB
- Drake Maye: 228 projected passing yards
Steelers Starting QB
- Aaron Rodgers: 230 projected passing yards
Patriots Rushing Yards
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 47 projected yards
- Drake Maye: 29 projected yards
- TreVeyon Henderson: 29 projected yards
Steelers Rushing Yards
- Jaylen Warren: 57 projected yards
- Kenneth Gainwell: 33 projected yards
- Aaron Rodgers: 6 projected yards
Patriots Receiving Yards
- Stefon Diggs: 45 projected yards
- Hunter Henry: 38 projected yards
- Kayshon Boutte: 36 projected yards
- DeMario Douglas: 26 projected yards
- TreVeyon Henderson: 21 projected yards
Steelers Receiving Yards
- DK Metcalf: 65 projected yards
- Calvin Austin: 44 projected yards
- Pat Freiermuth: 31 projected yards
- Jonnu Smith: 25 projected yards
- Roman Wilson: 24 projected yards
Remember, our model updates regularly, so bookmark this page for the latest betting predictions before the New England vs Pittsburgh game.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets to get the best tips on every NFL game, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Patriots vs Steelers: Week 3 Essential Details
The NFL Week 3 match-up between the Patriots and Steelers at Gillette Stadium is scheduled to begin at 3:00am AEST on Monday.
- Teams: New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers
- Date: Monday 22 September 2025
- Time: 3:00am AEST
- Venue: Gillette Stadium
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
Our New England vs Pittsburgh predictions have been made after running 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our NFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you decide to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's important to gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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