Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction and Preview - NFL Week 18, 2026

The New England Patriots will take on the Miami Dolphins in NFL Week 18 action at Gillette Stadium on Monday, commencing at 8:25am AEDT.

This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Patriots vs Dolphins game, plus the latest betting odds and touchdown scorer tips.

Who Will Win?

Based on advanced machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Monday's New England vs Miami NFL game 10,000 times.

Our independent predictive analytics model currently gives the Patriots an 88% chance of beating the Dolphins in Week 18 of the NFL season.

Patriots vs Dolphins: Odds

The current Bet365 betting odds in Australia for Monday's NFL game at Gillette Stadium are shown here:

• Head to Head: Patriots $1.09, Dolphins $8.00
• Line: Patriots -14.5 ($1.91), Dolphins +14.5 ($1.91)
• Total (Over/Under 44 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91

Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.

Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has the Patriots at $1.09 and the Dolphins at $8.00.

The Patriots are 14.5-point favourites against the Dolphins, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.

For the underdog Dolphins (+14.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.

The over/under for total points scored is set at 44 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.

According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Dolphins (+14.5) are predicted to cover the line 58% of the time, while the 44-point over/under is expected to go over 52% of the time.

Patriots vs Dolphins: Best Bets

• Head to Head: Miami at $8.00 with Bet365
• Line: Dolphins +14.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
• Total Points: Over 44 at $1.91 with Bet365

When you see a 🔥, that means it's one of Stats Insider's best tips for today across all sports.

Today's Patriots vs Dolphins predictions are based on world-class simulations and gambling experience to provide you with the best possible advice around the clock.

While the Patriots have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Dolphins to win is our recommended option due to the edge found when comparing our data-led probabilities to the odds currently available.

Making use of the edges seen on Stats Insider is crucial to achieving long-term success as a punter.

Patriots vs Dolphins: Prediction

Stats Insider's predicted final score for Patriots vs Dolphins at Gillette Stadium in Week 18 is the Patriots winning 28-16.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the New England vs Miami game in Week 18, including data-driven predictions and expert tips.

Get expert analysis from the US with Dimers' in-depth Patriots vs Dolphins prediction.

18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Patriots vs Dolphins: TD Scorer Tips

Who will score an anytime touchdown in Patriots vs Dolphins? The data is in.

According to Stats Insider, New England's TreVeyon Henderson is the most likely player to score the first TD in Patriots vs Dolphins.

Henderson has a 9.7% chance of scoring the first TD at Gillette Stadium, while the Patriots RB has a 40.7% chance of scoring an anytime touchdown.

Scroll down for the full list of first touchdown scorer and anytime touchdown scorer probabilities.

First Touchdown Scorer Tips

Patriots First TD Tips

• TreVeyon Henderson: 9.7% probability
• Rhamondre Stevenson: 9.5% probability
• Hunter Henry: 8.4% probability
• Stefon Diggs: 7.8% probability
• Drake Maye: 5.5% probability

Dolphins First TD Tips

• Jaylen Wright: 6.7% probability
• Ollie Gordon: 5.7% probability
• Greg Dulcich: 3.1% probability
• Malik Washington: 3.1% probability
• Theo Wease: 2.4% probability

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tips

Patriots Anytime TD Tips

• TreVeyon Henderson: 40.7% probability
• Rhamondre Stevenson: 40.2% probability
• Hunter Henry: 36.5% probability
• Stefon Diggs: 34.3% probability
• Drake Maye: 25.7% probability

Dolphins Anytime TD Tips

• Jaylen Wright: 36.5% probability
• Ollie Gordon: 31.8% probability
• Greg Dulcich: 19.0% probability
• Malik Washington: 18.8% probability
• Theo Wease: 15.2% probability

Patriots-Dolphins Projected Player Stats

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Patriots' Drake Maye is projected for 246 passing yards, while the Dolphins' Quinn Ewers is expected to throw for 187 yards.

Patriots Starting QB

• Drake Maye: 246 projected passing yards

Dolphins Starting QB

• Quinn Ewers: 187 projected passing yards

Patriots Rushing Yards

• TreVeyon Henderson: 55 projected yards
• Rhamondre Stevenson: 39 projected yards
• Drake Maye: 19 projected yards

Dolphins Rushing Yards

• Jaylen Wright: 58 projected yards
• Ollie Gordon: 24 projected yards
• Donovan Edwards: 11 projected yards

Patriots Receiving Yards

• Stefon Diggs: 62 projected yards
• Hunter Henry: 49 projected yards
• Kayshon Boutte: 35 projected yards
• Kyle Williams: 26 projected yards
• Rhamondre Stevenson: 18 projected yards

Dolphins Receiving Yards

• Greg Dulcich: 41 projected yards
• Malik Washington: 36 projected yards
• Theo Wease: 26 projected yards
• Cedrick Wilson: 25 projected yards
• Jaylen Wright: 15 projected yards

Remember, our model updates regularly, so bookmark this page for the latest betting predictions before the New England vs Miami match-up.

As always, see our Best Bets to get the best tips on every NFL game, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.

Patriots vs Dolphins: Week 18 Essential Details

The NFL Week 18 game between the Patriots and Dolphins at Gillette Stadium is scheduled to start at 8:25am AEDT on Monday.

• Teams: New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins
• Date: Monday 5 January 2026
• Time: 8:25am AEDT
• Venue: Gillette Stadium

All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT), unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

Our New England vs Miami predictions are the result of 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, all curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our NFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, giving you the knowledge you need to make informed decisions with confidence.

If you choose to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's vital that you gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

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