Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction and Preview - NFL Week 18, 2026
Last updated: Dec 30, 2025, 4:46AM | Published: Dec 30, 2025, 1:51AM
The New England Patriots will take on the Miami Dolphins in NFL Week 18 action at Gillette Stadium on Monday, starting at 8:25am AEDT.
This article features Stats Insider's free betting tips for the Patriots vs Dolphins game, along with the latest betting odds and touchdown scorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Using advanced machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Monday's New England vs Miami NFL game 10,000 times.
Our proven predictive analytics model currently gives the Patriots an 82% chance of beating the Dolphins in Week 18 of the NFL season.
Patriots vs Dolphins: Odds
The current Bet365 betting odds in Australia for Monday's NFL game at Gillette Stadium are shown here:
- Head to Head: Patriots $1.17, Dolphins $5.50
- Line: Patriots -11.5 ($1.91), Dolphins +11.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 45.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has the Patriots at $1.17 and the Dolphins at $5.50.
The Patriots are 11.5-point favourites against the Dolphins, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the underdog Dolphins (+11.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 45.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's model, the Dolphins (+11.5) are predicted to cover the line 56% of the time, while the 45.5-point over/under is expected to stay under 55% of the time.
Patriots vs Dolphins: Best Bets
- Head to Head: Miami at $5.50 with Bet365
- Line: Dolphins +11.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Under 45.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
Today's Patriots vs Dolphins betting tips are based on market-leading simulations and wagering intelligence to help you place more informed bets with your chosen online bookie.
While the Patriots have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Dolphins to win is our recommended option because of the edge identified when comparing our data-led probabilities to the odds currently on offer.
Taking advantage of the edges published on Stats Insider is pivotal to achieving long-term profitability.
Patriots vs Dolphins: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Patriots vs Dolphins at Gillette Stadium in Week 18 is the Patriots winning 27-17.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full coverage of the New England vs Miami game in Week 18, including data-driven predictions and expert tips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Patriots vs Dolphins: TD Scorer Tips
Who will score the first touchdown in Patriots vs Dolphins? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Miami's De'Von Achane is the most likely player to score the first TD in Patriots vs Dolphins.
Achane has an 11.0% chance of getting in for six first at Gillette Stadium, while the Dolphins RB has a 54.6% chance of reaching the end zone at any point during the game.
Scroll down for our complete list of first touchdown scorer and anytime touchdown scorer probabilities.
First Touchdown Scorer Tips
Patriots First TD Tips
- TreVeyon Henderson: 9.9% probability
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 9.2% probability
- Hunter Henry: 7.8% probability
- Kyle Williams: 7.4% probability
- Stefon Diggs: 7.2% probability
Dolphins First TD Tips
- De'Von Achane: 11.0% probability
- Jaylen Waddle: 5.7% probability
- Darren Waller: 5.4% probability
- Jaylen Wright: 3.2% probability
- Ollie Gordon: 2.3% probability
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tips
Patriots Anytime TD Tips
- TreVeyon Henderson: 42.3% probability
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 40.1% probability
- Hunter Henry: 35.3% probability
- Kyle Williams: 33.8% probability
- Stefon Diggs: 32.8% probability
Dolphins Anytime TD Tips
- De'Von Achane: 54.6% probability
- Jaylen Waddle: 33.8% probability
- Darren Waller: 31.9% probability
- Jaylen Wright: 20.3% probability
- Ollie Gordon: 15.4% probability
Patriots-Dolphins Projected Player Stats
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Patriots' Drake Maye is projected for 259 passing yards. The Dolphins' Quinn Ewers is expected to throw for 181 yards.
Patriots Starting QB
- Drake Maye: 259 projected passing yards
Dolphins Starting QB
- Quinn Ewers: 181 projected passing yards
Patriots Rushing Yards
- TreVeyon Henderson: 41 projected yards
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 36 projected yards
- Drake Maye: 19 projected yards
Dolphins Rushing Yards
- De'Von Achane: 73 projected yards
- Jaylen Wright: 19 projected yards
- Quinn Ewers: 9 projected yards
Patriots Receiving Yards
- Stefon Diggs: 61 projected yards
- Kyle Williams: 48 projected yards
- Hunter Henry: 44 projected yards
- DeMario Douglas: 22 projected yards
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 17 projected yards
Dolphins Receiving Yards
- Jaylen Waddle: 61 projected yards
- Darren Waller: 34 projected yards
- De'Von Achane: 27 projected yards
- Malik Washington: 18 projected yards
- Theo Wease: 15 projected yards
Our model updates frequently, so keep checking this article for the latest betting predictions before the New England vs Miami game.
As always, see our Best Bets to get the best tips on every NFL game, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Patriots vs Dolphins: Week 18 Essential Details
The NFL Week 18 match-up between the Patriots and Dolphins at Gillette Stadium is scheduled to commence at 8:25am AEDT on Monday.
- Teams: New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins
- Date: Monday 5 January 2026
- Time: 8:25am AEDT
- Venue: Gillette Stadium
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT), unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
Our New England vs Miami predictions are the result of 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of expert data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our NFL tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you choose to use our NFL predictions for betting purposes, it's important to gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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