Patriots vs Bills Prediction and Preview - NFL Week 15, 2025
Last updated: Dec 14, 2025, 6:01PM | Published: Dec 7, 2025, 5:06AM
The New England Patriots will take on the Buffalo Bills in NFL Week 15 action at Gillette Stadium on Monday, beginning at 5:00am AEDT.
This article features Stats Insider's top betting tips for the Patriots vs Bills game, as well as the latest betting odds and touchdown scorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Using trusted machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Monday's New England vs Buffalo NFL match-up 10,000 times.
Our proven predictive analytics model currently gives the Bills a 57% chance of defeating the Patriots at Gillette Stadium.
Patriots vs Bills: Odds
The current Bet365 betting odds in Australia for Monday's NFL game at Gillette Stadium are shown below:
- Head to Head: Patriots $2.20, Bills $1.71
- Line: Patriots +2.5 ($1.91), Bills -2.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 49.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has the Patriots at $2.20 and the Bills at $1.71.
The Patriots are 2.5-point underdogs against the Bills, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the favourite Bills (-2.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 49.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's model, the Patriots (+2.5) are predicted to cover the line 58% of the time, while the 49.5-point over/under is expected to is considered an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Patriots vs Bills: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Buffalo at $1.71 with Bet365
- Line: Patriots +2.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Under 49.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
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Patriots vs Bills: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Patriots vs Bills at Gillette Stadium in Week 15 is the Bills winning 25-24.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the New England vs Buffalo game in Week 15, including data-driven predictions and live win probabilitiestips.
Get expert analysis from the US with Dimers' in-depth Patriots vs Bills prediction.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Patriots vs Bills: TD Scorer Tips
Who will score the first touchdown in Patriots vs Bills? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Buffalo's James Cook is the most likely player to score the first touchdown in Patriots vs Bills.
Cook has a 10.8% chance of scoring the first TD at Gillette Stadium, while the Bills RB has a 54.9% chance of reaching the end zone at any point in the game.
Scroll down for our full list of first touchdown scorer and anytime touchdown scorer probabilities.
First Touchdown Scorer Tips
Patriots First TD Tips
- TreVeyon Henderson: 8.9% probability
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 6.5% probability
- Stefon Diggs: 5.7% probability
- Hunter Henry: 5.1% probability
- Kayshon Boutte: 5.0% probability
Bills First TD Tips
- James Cook: 10.8% probability
- Josh Allen: 8.4% probability
- Khalil Shakir: 6.3% probability
- Dalton Kincaid: 4.8% probability
- Ty Johnson: 4.0% probability
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tips
Patriots Anytime TD Tips
- TreVeyon Henderson: 47.0% probability
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 37.2% probability
- Stefon Diggs: 33.5% probability
- Hunter Henry: 30.7% probability
- Kayshon Boutte: 30.3% probability
Bills Anytime TD Tips
- James Cook: 54.9% probability
- Josh Allen: 46.4% probability
- Khalil Shakir: 37.1% probability
- Dalton Kincaid: 30.0% probability
- Ty Johnson: 25.6% probability
Patriots-Bills Projected Player Stats
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Patriots' Drake Maye is projected for 242 passing yards, while the Bills' Josh Allen is expected to throw for 231 yards.
Patriots Starting QB
- Drake Maye: 242 projected passing yards
Bills Starting QB
- Josh Allen: 231 projected passing yards
Patriots Rushing Yards
- TreVeyon Henderson: 46 projected yards
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 38 projected yards
- Drake Maye: 25 projected yards
Bills Rushing Yards
- James Cook: 89 projected yards
- Josh Allen: 38 projected yards
- Ty Johnson: 11 projected yards
Patriots Receiving Yards
- Stefon Diggs: 59 projected yards
- Hunter Henry: 42 projected yards
- Kayshon Boutte: 37 projected yards
- Mack Hollins: 35 projected yards
- DeMario Douglas: 22 projected yards
Bills Receiving Yards
- Khalil Shakir: 50 projected yards
- Dalton Kincaid: 43 projected yards
- Joshua Palmer: 30 projected yards
- Keon Coleman: 24 projected yards
- Tyrell Shavers: 21 projected yards
Remember, our model updates regularly, so keep checking this article for the latest betting analysis before the New England vs Buffalo match-up.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets to get the best tips on every NFL game, plus predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Patriots vs Bills: Week 15 Essential Details
The NFL Week 15 match-up between the Patriots and Bills at Gillette Stadium is scheduled to start at 5:00am AEDT on Monday.
- Teams: New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills
- Date: Monday 15 December 2025
- Time: 5:00am AEDT
- Venue: Gillette Stadium
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT), unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
Our New England vs Buffalo predictions are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our NFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, giving you the knowledge you need to make informed decisions with confidence.
If you decide to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's crucial that you gamble responsibly and know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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