Panthers vs Dragons Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 11, 2026
Last updated: May 14, 2026, 4:35AM | Published: May 10, 2026, 11:15PM
The Panthers will take on the Dragons in NRL Round 11 action at Suncorp Stadium on Sunday, starting at 6:25pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Panthers vs Dragons game, as well as the latest betting odds and try scorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Utilising trusted machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Sunday's Penrith vs St George Illawarra NRL match 10,000 times.
Our leading predictive analytics model currently gives the Panthers an 87% chance of winning against the Dragons at Suncorp Stadium.
Panthers vs Dragons: Odds
The current Bet365 betting odds for Sunday's NRL clash at Suncorp Stadium are listed below:
- Head to Head: Panthers $1.03, Dragons $12.00
- Line: Panthers -26.5 ($1.91), Dragons +26.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 55.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has the Panthers at $1.03 and the Dragons at $12.00.
The Panthers are listed as 26.5-point favourites against the Dragons, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the underdog Dragons (+26.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 55.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's model, the Dragons (+26.5) are predicted to cover the line 60% of the time, while the 55.5-point over/under is expected to stay under 64% of the time.
Panthers vs Dragons: Best Bets
- Head to Head: St George at $12.00 with Bet365
- Line: Dragons +26.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Under 55.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
If you see a 🔥, you know you've found one of Stats Insider's best bets for today across any sport.
These Panthers vs Dragons betting tips are based on world-class simulations and betting expertise to give you the best possible advice around the clock.
While the Panthers have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Dragons to win is our recommended option due to the 4.8% edge found when comparing our data-led probabilities to the odds currently available.
Taking advantage of the edges published on Stats Insider is crucial to being a profitable punter in the long run.
Panthers vs Dragons: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Panthers vs Dragons at Suncorp Stadium on Sunday is the Panthers winning 31-14.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full coverage of the Panthers vs St George match on Sunday, including data-driven predictions and expert tips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Panthers vs Dragons: Try Scorers
Looking for Panthers vs Dragons try scorers? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, the Panthers' Thomas Jenkins is the most likely player to score the first try in Penrith vs St George Illawarra.
Jenkins has a 13.2% chance of scoring the first try at Suncorp Stadium, while the Panthers star has a 70.9% chance of scoring a try at any time during the game.
Scroll down for our complete list of first try scorer and anytime try scorer probabilities.
First Try Scorer Tips
Penrith Panthers
- Thomas Jenkins: 13.2% probability
- Brian To'o: 9.2% probability
- Dylan Edwards: 8.2% probability
- Casey McLean: 8.0% probability
- Nathan Cleary: 5.5% probability
St George Illawarra Dragons
- Christian Tuipulotu: 4.3% probability
- Setu Tu: 3.6% probability
- Valentine Holmes: 3.4% probability
- Clinton Gutherson: 3.1% probability
- Dylan Egan: 1.7% probability
Anytime Try Scorer Tips
Penrith Panthers
- Thomas Jenkins: 70.9% probability
- Brian To'o: 59.5% probability
- Casey McLean: 53.1% probability
- Dylan Edwards: 52.2% probability
- Paul Alamoti: 39.0% probability
St George Illawarra Dragons
- Christian Tuipulotu: 33.8% probability
- Setu Tu: 31.8% probability
- Valentine Holmes: 28.3% probability
- Clinton Gutherson: 27.0% probability
- Kyle Flanagan: 16.4% probability
Remember, our model updates regularly, so keep checking this article for the latest betting tips before the Panthers vs Dragons match.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets for betting tips for every NRL match, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Panthers vs Dragons: Essential Details
The NRL Round 11 clash between the Panthers and Dragons at Suncorp Stadium is scheduled to begin at 6:25pm AEST on Sunday.
- Teams: Penrith Panthers vs St George Illawarra Dragons
- Date: Sunday 17 May 2026
- Kick-off: 6:25pm AEST
- Location: Suncorp Stadium
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
Our Panthers vs St George predictions are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of expert data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our rugby league tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
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