Panthers vs Dragons Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 11, 2026
Last updated: May 17, 2026, 8:25AM | Published: May 10, 2026, 11:15PM
The Panthers will take on the Dragons in NRL Round 11 action at Suncorp Stadium on Sunday, commencing at 6:25pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Panthers vs Dragons game, along with the latest betting odds and try scorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Based on trusted machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Sunday's Penrith vs St George Illawarra NRL match 10,000 times.
Our leading predictive analytics model currently gives the Panthers an 87% chance of winning against the Dragons at Suncorp Stadium.
Panthers vs Dragons: Odds
The current Bet365 betting odds for Sunday's NRL clash at Suncorp Stadium are listed here:
- Head to Head: Panthers $1.03, Dragons $12.00
- Line: Panthers -26.5 ($1.91), Dragons +26.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 56.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has the Panthers at $1.03 and the Dragons at $12.00.
The Panthers are listed as 26.5-point favourites against the Dragons, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the underdog Dragons (+26.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 56.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's model, the Dragons (+26.5) are predicted to cover the line 60% of the time, while the 56.5-point over/under is expected to stay under 68% of the time.
Panthers vs Dragons: Best Bets
- Head to Head: St George at $12.00 with Bet365
- Line: Dragons +26.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Under 56.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
If you see a 🔥, you know it's one of our best bets of the day across any sport.
These Panthers vs Dragons best bets are based on detailed modelling and betting experience to bring you the best possible advice around the clock.
While the Panthers have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Dragons to win is our recommended option due to the 5.1% edge identified when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently available.
Taking advantage of the edges seen here at Stats Insider is pivotal to being a profitable punter in the long run.
Panthers vs Dragons: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Panthers vs Dragons at Suncorp Stadium on Sunday is the Panthers winning 31-14.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the Panthers vs St George match on Sunday, including data-driven predictions and free betting tips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Panthers vs Dragons: Try Scorers
Are you looking for Panthers vs Dragons try scorers? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, the Panthers' Thomas Jenkins is the most likely player to score the first try in Penrith vs St George Illawarra.
Jenkins has a 13.3% chance of scoring the first try at Suncorp Stadium, while the Panthers star has a 71.8% chance of scoring a try at any time during the game.
Scroll down for the full list of first try scorer and anytime try scorer probabilities.
First Try Scorer Tips
Penrith Panthers
- Thomas Jenkins: 13.3% probability
- Brian To'o: 9.4% probability
- Casey McLean: 8.2% probability
- Dylan Edwards: 7.9% probability
- Paul Alamoti: 5.7% probability
St George Illawarra Dragons
- Christian Tuipulotu: 4.2% probability
- Setu Tu: 3.8% probability
- Valentine Holmes: 3.6% probability
- Clinton Gutherson: 3.0% probability
- Kyle Flanagan: 1.8% probability
Anytime Try Scorer Tips
Penrith Panthers
- Thomas Jenkins: 71.8% probability
- Brian To'o: 59.8% probability
- Casey McLean: 53.2% probability
- Dylan Edwards: 53.1% probability
- Paul Alamoti: 39.9% probability
St George Illawarra Dragons
- Christian Tuipulotu: 32.8% probability
- Setu Tu: 30.8% probability
- Valentine Holmes: 27.7% probability
- Clinton Gutherson: 25.6% probability
- Dylan Egan: 15.9% probability
Remember, our model updates regularly, so keep checking this article for the latest betting tips before the Panthers vs Dragons match.
As always, see our Best Bets for the best tips for every NRL match, plus predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Panthers vs Dragons: Essential Details
The NRL Round 11 clash between the Panthers and Dragons at Suncorp Stadium is scheduled to start at 6:25pm AEST on Sunday.
- Teams: Penrith Panthers vs St George Illawarra Dragons
- Date: Sunday 17 May 2026
- Kick-off: 6:25pm AEST
- Location: Suncorp Stadium
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
Our Panthers vs St George predictions are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, all curated by our team of expert data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our rugby league tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the knowledge you need to make informed decisions with confidence.
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