After eight straight weeks of winning, we went a bit cold last week but when a ball beats the bat or you put your tee shot in the drink, the best, most sensible thing to do (we’re pretty sure) is go twice as hard at the next one.

There’s plenty on today including PGA, Euro Golf, AFLW futures, BBL and Australian Open, so come in and pull up a chair, enjoy a cold beverage and join in the yarn about all things punting and sport at Club 20.

PGA – WASTE MANAGEMENT PHOENIX OPEN

We’re in Arizona for the Phoenix Open where avid Golf fans (or Tiger Wood Golf gamers) will no doubt remember fondly this TPC Scottsdale course and the very unique vibe that accompanies this tournament.

Slightly reduced field of 132 will try and conquer these very (very) slick Bermuda greens which is where this event is won and lost each year.

The rough is not very penal here so off the tee is not our priority, we’re looking for guys with solid approach games but more importantly, elite around-the-green play and as mentioned already (but cannot stress enough!) you must be able to roll them in here. 

Xander Schauffele @ 19-1

Matsuyama, Simpson, Rahm – plenty of stars have much better course form than Xander this week which means the X Man is going very much under the radar, which is where he loves it. Has played here twice for a T10 and T17, so not too shabby at all. He smashed it on and around the greens. The missed cut at the Farmers last week is fine, he never performs well at his home track. That fury of dropping the TOC event in Maui will have turned into focused hunger now.

Bud Cauley @ 91/19

We were going to leave him alone this week but he popped off the stat sheet, particularly around the greens where he is ranked #9 in the field. Cauley has played here five times for 4 made cuts and every year he has done one thing poorly. Lost two strokes off the tee last year and still finished T26. In 2018 his approaches were off. 2017 he had a shocker around the greens and before that it was his flatstick. Conversely though he has gained 6 shots on approach here previously (and more than 3 shots three times), 3 shots off the tee, 2.6 strokes on the greens – he has the parts to go really deep here and he loves these desert courses. Going again each-way.

Kiradech Aphibarnrat 

• Outright @200/42
• Top 40 @3.40
• First Round Leader @ 111-1

Those who know that often, I blindly pick the Rat regardless, just hear me out. Firstly the big chain-smoking Thai is a wizard on Bermuda greens, gaining almost 1 stroke per round on the field. He played this event last year and gained 8.2 strokes on the greens (!!) for a T33. His T2G game was horrid. But he is in decent form, finishing T42 in Abu Dhabi a fortnight ago despite a 9 (yes nine!) on the Par 4 2nd in round 2. Aphibarnrat is ranked #2 in this field in putting, is a Bermuda specialist, he is ranked #17 in this field for his around the green play, and he gets a course that is pretty unforgiving off the tee and in the rough. Yes, he could stink it up, but he is that good around and on the greens that if he hits it even half well he can catch fire on this course. Taking him for First Round Leader as well, and a T40 bet to cover the hail mary plays.

3-Ball’s + 2 leg Multi

• Xander @ 2.40

• Fowler @ 2.50
  

• 2-Legger @ 6.00

EURO GOLF – SAUDI INTERNATIONAL

The House of Saud has dug up some fossils to fill this field that would be considered sub-par in pretty much any euro tour event outside the top 4-5 guys. DJ, Brooks, Reed and Sergio are a clear class above with players like Perez, Ancer, Stensen, Kaymer, Van Rooyen and Lowry all capable of staging an upset.

After that there is a bit of a cliff.

The Al Murooj Golf Course lies right on the western coast between Mecca and Medina, it’s a resort course but can get windy. The PM/AM wave looks the better split wind wise first two days but we shouldn’t see anything like we saw last week in the UAE. 

Dustin Johnson @ 7-1

We don’t usually take the short priced favourite for golf (or ever) but Dustin Johnson’s 7-1 price appeals strongly here given the short course and (relatively) weaker field.

Brooks is still in recovery mode whilst Reed, Ancer, Garcia, Lowry are all a few rungs below DJ in ability. Wind or no wind, he can, and should, absolutely destroy this field.

Few exotic bets we like;

• Any 4 of DJ, Reed, Stenson, Perez, Wiesberger to finish Top 20 @ 4.50

• Any 3 of Garcia, Wiesberger, Kaymer, Perez to finish Top 10 @ 19.00

• DJ Top 5, Garcia Top 10, Perez Top 20 @ 26.00

• Wiesberger, Stenon, Perez, Garcia to all finish Top 20 @ 34.00

• Ancer Top 5, Steson Top 10, Kaymer Top 20 @ 56.00

AFLW FUTURES – GOAL KICKING MARKET

The AFLW season is just one week away and I for one cannot wait because I absolutely took it apart last season.

Add in four new teams and markets have even less clue than they did last season and that was not much at all. 

We will take an indepth look at R1 next Thursday and the B&F MedalFutures on Sunday’s yarn, but today I thought we’d throw a few (informed) darts at the Leading Goal Kicker market.

All up there were eight (8) that caught my eye for either value or opportunity or both. Of those I’ve currently bet three (3) but I'll list the remaining five briefly as well.

Tegan Cunningham @ 15-1

The big key forward for the Dees has had two seasons now and I think it’s third time lucky. She is accurate, pretty much impossible to defend if the kick is good enough, plays out of the square, she is pretty much alone down there in terms of key position height and the Dees will be a force again this season. As with every season of AFLW it’s accuracy that matters but 15’s is a great price for the opportunity/frequency.

Chloe Molloy @ 41-1

She killed it in her debut season across half back but coming back from an ACL she finds herself in a team with Ash Brazill and also now Bri Davey, both of whom will likely play across there and rack up possessions. Molloy was a forward as a junior and has been playing there in the trials, with her kicking skills and the increased opportunity she will get in this improved Magpie side, I think it’s worth a go at the price. 

Bonnie Toogood @ 41-1

Without Katie Brennan in that Bulldogs forward line, Toogood stepped up as a focal point. With Brooke Lochland back, I expect Toogood to play a lot closer to goal this season, particularly with Issy Huntington’s move to a half back flank. Plenty of opportunity for Toogood who is a great mark and a thumping kick.

The other five we might throw some darts at closer to opening bounce is Emma King (9-1) who will spend plenty more time forward this season with the Roos picking up good young ruck, Danielle Ponter (17-1) should improve on her 1.6 goal/game 2019 average especially with Phillips doubtful to return for at least a few weeks. 

Would have been all over Gemma Houghton (17-1) had Freo not lost both their rucks to the Eagles in off season. Fear she may play too much ruck to compete here. Pheobe McWilliams (21-1) is fit again and appeals in an improved Cats team that will look to her constantly and finally Kate Hore (51-1) is a great price given her role at the Dees as a small marking forward.

AUSTRALIAN OPEN and BIG BASH

• Ash Barty and Sofia Kenin - Games over 21.5 @1.8
• Simona Halep -2.5 games @1.83

Come join the Twitter party @Club20 for our most up-to-date bets including some BBL this arv/evening.

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