NSW vs QLD State of Origin Game 3 Prediction 2025
Jul 7, 2025, 2:41AM
New South Wales will take on Queensland in Game 3 of the 2025 State of Origin series at Accor Stadium on Wednesday, starting at 8:05pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for State of Origin Game 3, as well as the latest betting odds in Australia.
Who Will Win?
Using trusted machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Game 3 of the 2025 State of Origin series 10,000 times.
Our independent predictive analytics model currently gives the Blues a 69% chance of beating the Maroons at Accor Stadium.
NSW vs QLD Game 3: Odds
The latest betting odds in Australia for Wednesday's State of Origin clash at Accor Stadium are shown here:
- Head to Head: New South Wales $1.38, Queensland $3.10
- Line: New South Wales -8.5 ($1.91), Queensland +8.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 42.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, the bookmakers currently have New South Wales at $1.38 and QLD at $3.10.
New South Wales is a 8.5-point favourite against Queensland, with odds of $1.91 available at TAB.
For the underdog Queensland (+8.5) to cover the line, TAB offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 42.5 with TAB, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's model, QLD (+8.5) is predicted to cover the line 52% of the time, while the 42.5-point over/under is expected to stay under 51% of the time.
State of Origin Game 3: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Queensland at $3.10 with TAB
- Line: QLD +8.5 at $1.91 with TAB
- Total Points: Under 42.5 at $1.91 with TAB
Our State of Origin Game 3 betting tips are based on market-leading modelling and betting expertise to help you place smarter bets with your chosen online bookie.
While New South Wales has a higher chance of winning the game, betting on QLD to win is our recommended option because of the edge identified when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently on offer.
Taking advantage of the edges published here at Stats Insider is crucial to achieving long-term success as a punter.
State of Origin Game 3: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for State of Origin Game 3 at Accor Stadium this Wednesday is the Blues winning 25-17.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full coverage of State of Origin Game 3 on Wednesday, including data-driven predictions and the best betting tips.
Remember, our model updates regularly, so refresh this page for the latest betting predictions before the New South Wales vs Queensland game.
As always, see our Best Bets to get the best tips on every State of Origin match, plus predictions for every game of the 2025 NRL season.
NSW vs QLD Game 3: Essential Details
The State of Origin Game 3 between New South Wales and Queensland at Accor Stadium is scheduled to begin at 8:05pm AEST on Wednesday.
- Teams: New South Wales vs Queensland
- Date: Wednesday 9 July 2025
- Time: 8:05pm AEST
- Venue: Accor Stadium
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
Our State of Origin Game 3 predictions have been made after running 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our State of Origin tips are trustworthy and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you choose to use our State of Origin predictions for betting purposes, it's crucial that you gamble responsibly and know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
More on State of Origin
Stats Insider is your home for betting on State of Origin in Australia, with the latest State of Origin betting news and tips for every State of Origin game.
