NSW vs QLD State of Origin Game 1 Prediction 2026
Last updated: May 26, 2026, 12:47AM | Published: May 25, 2026, 10:35AM
New South Wales will face Queensland in Game 1 of the 2026 State of Origin series at Accor Stadium on Wednesday, beginning at 8:05pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for State of Origin Game 1, plus the latest betting odds and try scorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Based on trusted machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Game 1 of the 2026 State of Origin series 10,000 times.
Our proven predictive analytics model gives the Blues a 59% chance of beating the Maroons at Accor Stadium.
NSW vs QLD Game 1: Odds
The latest betting odds in Australia for Wednesday's State of Origin clash at Accor Stadium are shown below:
- Head to Head: New South Wales $1.65, Queensland $2.25
- Line: New South Wales -2.5 ($1.91), Queensland +2.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 42.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, the bookmakers currently have New South Wales at $1.65 and QLD at $2.25.
New South Wales is listed as a 2.5-point favourite against Queensland, with odds of $1.91 available at TAB.
For the underdog Queensland (+2.5) to cover the line, TAB offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 42.5 with TAB, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, NSW (-2.5) is predicted to cover the line 52% of the time, while the 42.5-point over/under is expected to stay under 51% of the time.
State of Origin Game 1: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: New South Wales at $1.65 with TAB
- Line: NSW -2.5 at $1.91 with TAB
- Total Points: Under 42.5 at $1.91 with TAB
Stats Insider's State of Origin Game 1 betting tips are based on detailed simulations and gambling expertise to help you place better bets with your chosen online bookie.
State of Origin Game 1: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for State of Origin Game 1 at Accor Stadium on Wednesday is the Blues winning 23-19.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full coverage of State of Origin Game 1 on Wednesday, including data-driven predictions and expert tips.
State of Origin Game 1: Try Scorers
Who will score an anytime try in Game 1 of State of Origin? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Tolutau Koula is the most likely player to score the first try in NSW vs QLD.
Koula has a 7.2% chance of scoring the first try at Accor Stadium, while the NSW star has a 40.9% chance of scoring a try at any time during the match.
Scroll down for the complete list of first try scorer and anytime try scorer probabilities.
First Try Scorer Tips
New South Wales Blues
- Tolutau Koula: 7.2% probability
- Brian To'o: 6.7% probability
- Kotoni Staggs: 6.6% probability
- James Tedesco: 6.5% probability
- Hudson Young: 4.5% probability
Queensland Maroons
- Selwyn Cobbo: 5.9% probability
- Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow: 5.8% probability
- Jojo Fifita: 5.6% probability
- Robert Toia: 4.0% probability
- Kalyn Ponga: 3.6% probability
Anytime Try Scorer Tips
New South Wales Blues
- Tolutau Koula: 40.9% probability
- Brian To'o: 39.6% probability
- Kotoni Staggs: 37.7% probability
- James Tedesco: 37.1% probability
- Hudson Young: 29.6% probability
Queensland Maroons
- Selwyn Cobbo: 37.3% probability
- Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow: 34.8% probability
- Jojo Fifita: 34.4% probability
- Robert Toia: 26.4% probability
- Sam Walker: 23.1% probability
Our model updates frequently, so keep checking this page for the latest betting predictions before the New South Wales vs Queensland match.
As always, see our Best Bets for the best tips on every State of Origin match, as well as predictions for every game of the 2026 NRL season.
NSW vs QLD Game 1: Essential Details
The State of Origin Game 1 between New South Wales and Queensland at Accor Stadium is scheduled to commence at 8:05pm AEST on Wednesday.
- Teams: New South Wales vs Queensland
- Date: Wednesday 27 May 2026
- Time: 8:05pm AEST
- Venue: Accor Stadium
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise stated.
State of Origin Game 1: Confirmed Team Lists
Below is the list of confirmed players for both the Maroons and Blues for Game 1 of the 2026 State of Origin series.
Queensland Maroons
STARTERS
- Kalyn Ponga (Newcastle Knights)
- Selwyn Cobbo (Dolphins)
- Robert Toia (Sydney Roosters)
- Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins)
- Jojo Fifita (Gold Coast Titans)
- Cameron Munster (Melbourne Storm)
- Sam Walker (Sydney Roosters)
- Thomas Flegler (Dolphins)
- Harry Grant (Melbourne Storm)
- Tino Fa'asuamaleaui (Gold Coast Titans)
- Reuben Cotter (North Queensland Cowboys)
- Kurt Capewell (Warriors)
- Max Plath (Dolphins)
INTERCHANGE
- Briton Nikora (Cronulla Sutherland Sharks)
- Lindsay Collins (Sydney Roosters)
- Patrick Carrigan (Brisbane Broncos)
- Trent Loiero (Melbourne Storm)
RESERVES
- Ezra Mam (Brisbane Broncos)
- Gehamat Shibasaki (Brisbane Broncos)
- Kulikefu Finefeuiaki (Dolphins)
Coach: Billy Slater
New South Wales Blues
STARTERS
- James Tedesco (Sydney Roosters)
- Brian To'o (Penrith Panthers)
- Stephen Crichton (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs)
- Kotoni Staggs (Brisbane Broncos)
- Tolutau Koula (Manly Warringah Sea Eagles)
- Mitchell Moses (Parramatta Eels)
- Nathan Cleary (Penrith Panthers)
- Addin Fonua-Blake (Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks)
- Reece Robson (Sydney Roosters)
- Mitchell Barnett (Warriors)
- Hudson Young (Canberra Raiders)
- Haumole Olakau'atu (Manly Warringah Sea Eagles)
- Isaah Yeo (c) (Penrith Panthers)
INTERCHANGE
- Cameron Murray (South Sydney Rabbitohs)
- Victor Radley (Sydney Roosters)
- Jacob Saifiti (Newcastle Knights)
- Blayke Brailey (Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks)
RESERVES
- Ethan Strange (Canberra Raiders)
- Casey McLean (Penrith Panthers)
- Dylan Lucas (Newcastle Knights)
Coach: Laurie Daley
Conclusion
Our State of Origin Game 1 predictions have been made after running 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, all curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our State of Origin tips are trustworthy and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you decide to use our State of Origin predictions for betting purposes, it's important that you gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
More on State of Origin
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