NSW vs QLD State of Origin Game 1 Prediction 2026
Last updated: May 25, 2026, 10:37AM | Published: May 25, 2026, 10:35AM
New South Wales will take on Queensland in Game 1 of the 2026 State of Origin series at Accor Stadium on Wednesday, commencing at 8:05pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's top betting tips for State of Origin Game 1, plus the latest betting odds in Australia.
Who Will Win?
Based on trusted computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Game 1 of the 2026 State of Origin series 10,000 times.
Our leading predictive analytics model currently gives the Blues a 62% chance of beating the Maroons at Accor Stadium.
NSW vs QLD Game 1: Odds
The current betting odds in Australia for Wednesday's State of Origin clash at Accor Stadium are shown below:
- Head to Head: New South Wales $1.55, Queensland $2.40
- Line: New South Wales -4.5 ($1.91), Queensland +4.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 41.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, the bookmakers currently have New South Wales at $1.55 and QLD at $2.40.
New South Wales is a 4.5-point favourite against Queensland, with odds of $1.91 available at TAB.
For the underdog Queensland (+4.5) to cover the line, TAB offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 41.5 with TAB, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's model, the bookmakers have got it right and both New South Wales and the QLD have a 50% chance of covering the line.
The 41.5-point over/under is expected to go over 52% of the time.
State of Origin Game 1: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: New South Wales at $1.55 with TAB
- Line: NSW -4.5 at $1.91 with TAB
- Total Points: Over 41.5 at $1.91 with TAB
Today's State of Origin Game 1 betting tips are based on market-leading simulations and gambling intelligence to help you place more informed bets with your chosen online bookie.
State of Origin Game 1: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for State of Origin Game 1 at Accor Stadium this Wednesday is the Blues winning 23-19.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of State of Origin Game 1 on Wednesday, including data-driven predictions and free tips.
Our model updates frequently, so refresh this page for the latest betting predictions before the New South Wales vs Queensland match.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets to get the best tips on every State of Origin match, plus predictions for every game of the 2026 NRL season.
NSW vs QLD Game 1: Essential Details
The State of Origin Game 1 between New South Wales and Queensland at Accor Stadium is scheduled to start at 8:05pm AEST on Wednesday.
- Teams: New South Wales vs Queensland
- Date: Wednesday 27 May 2026
- Time: 8:05pm AEST
- Venue: Accor Stadium
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise noted.
State of Origin Game 1: Confirmed Team Lists
Below is the list of confirmed players for both the Maroons and Blues for Game 1 of the 2026 State of Origin series.
Queensland Maroons
STARTERS
- Kalyn Ponga (Newcastle Knights)
- Selwyn Cobbo (Dolphins)
- Robert Toia (Sydney Roosters)
- Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins)
- Jojo Fifita (Gold Coast Titans)
- Cameron Munster (Melbourne Storm)
- Sam Walker (Sydney Roosters)
- Thomas Flegler (Dolphins)
- Harry Grant (Melbourne Storm)
- Tino Fa'asuamaleaui (Gold Coast Titans)
- Reuben Cotter (North Queensland Cowboys)
- Kurt Capewell (Warriors)
- Max Plath (Dolphins)
INTERCHANGE
- Briton Nikora (Cronulla Sutherland Sharks)
- Lindsay Collins (Sydney Roosters)
- Patrick Carrigan (Brisbane Broncos)
- Trent Loiero (Melbourne Storm)
RESERVES
- Ezra Mam (Brisbane Broncos)
- Gehamat Shibasaki (Brisbane Broncos)
- Kulikefu Finefeuiaki (Dolphins)
Coach: Billy Slater
New South Wales Blues
STARTERS
- James Tedesco (Sydney Roosters)
- Brian To'o (Penrith Panthers)
- Stephen Crichton (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs)
- Kotoni Staggs (Brisbane Broncos)
- Tolutau Koula (Manly Warringah Sea Eagles)
- Mitchell Moses (Parramatta Eels)
- Nathan Cleary (Penrith Panthers)
- Addin Fonua-Blake (Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks)
- Reece Robson (Sydney Roosters)
- Mitchell Barnett (Warriors)
- Hudson Young (Canberra Raiders)
- Haumole Olakau'atu (Manly Warringah Sea Eagles)
- Isaah Yeo (c) (Penrith Panthers)
INTERCHANGE
- Cameron Murray (South Sydney Rabbitohs)
- Victor Radley (Sydney Roosters)
- Jacob Saifiti (Newcastle Knights)
- Blayke Brailey (Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks)
RESERVES
- Ethan Strange (Canberra Raiders)
- Casey McLean (Penrith Panthers)
- Dylan Lucas (Newcastle Knights)
Coach: Laurie Daley
Conclusion
Our State of Origin Game 1 predictions are the result of 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, all curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our State of Origin tips are trustworthy and reliable, giving you the knowledge you need to make informed decisions with confidence.
If you choose to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's important to gamble responsibly and know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
More on State of Origin
Stats Insider is your home for betting on State of Origin in Australia, with the latest State of Origin betting news and tips for every State of Origin game.
