NBA Betting Tips Today [Sunday 17/12/2023]
Last updated: Dec 17, 2023, 4:01AM | Published: Dec 16, 2023, 6:31PM
The best NBA betting tips for Monday's action have been released.
Led by its expert team of data analysts, Stats Insider has run 10,000 simulations of every one of Monday's NBA games to generate reliable probabilities, which we then compared to the odds to find the best NBA bets for punters across Australia.
Each one of the recommended bets for Monday's NBA come straight from the popular NBA Best Bets page on Stats Insider.
NBA Monday [18/12]
After diving deep into the numbers and running thousands of simulations of today's NBA games, our famous computer model has determined the best basketball bets to make with Australian bookies on Monday December 18, 2023.
Today's NBA betting tips are led by multiple bets from the Suns vs Wizards game, with our advanced predictive model carefully striving to detect valuable edges.
Wizards +12.5 vs Suns ($1.91)
- Odds: $1.91 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.76
- Edge: 6.7%
- Probability: 56.7%
- Match: Suns vs Wizards (Monday, 12:00PM AEDT)
Our model has pinpointed the best NBA bet to make today, focusing on the matchup between the Suns and Wizards. We recommend placing a line bet on Wizards +12.5, currently offered at odds of $1.91 at TAB. We have found a significant edge of 6.7% for this particular wager, which makes it our NBA bet of the day.
MORE: NBA Value Bets Today
Suns vs Wizards Under 244.5 Points ($1.91)
- Odds: $1.91 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.77
- Edge: 6.4%
- Probability: 56.4%
- Matchup: Suns vs Wizards (Monday, 12:00PM AEDT)
Our model has uncovered another standout NBA bet, again in the matchup featuring the Suns and Wizards. We recommend considering an over/under wager on Under 244.5 Points, available at $1.91 odds through TAB. We have detected a compelling edge of 6.4% for this particular bet.
Warriors H2H vs Trail Blazers ($1.59)
- Odds: $1.59 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.52
- Edge: 5.5%
- Probability: 65.8%
- Matchup: Trail Blazers vs Warriors (Monday, 1:00PM AEDT)
Another top tip for today's basketball action comes from the matchup between the Trail Blazers and Warriors. The play here is a head-to-head bet, with Warriors to win at enticing odds of $1.59 through TAB. Our model has identified an advantageous edge of 5.5% for this particular wager.
Bucks H2H vs Rockets ($1.45)
- Odds: $1.45 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.35
- Edge: 5.0%
- Probability: 74%
- Match: Bucks vs Rockets (Monday, 11:00AM AEDT)
Our next edge stems from the game between the Bucks and Rockets. The play here is a head-to-head bet on the Bucks to win, currently available at $1.45 odds through Betfair. Our model has found a noteworthy 5.0% edge for this particular bet.
Wizards H2H vs Suns ($6.62)
- Odds: $6.62 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $5.49
- Edge: 3.7%
- Probability: 18.2%
- Matchup: Suns vs. Wizards (Monday, 12:00PM AEDT)
Next up, we're looking at the Suns vs. Wizards game. Our model has its eyes on Wizards to win, coming in at $6.62 odds. When comparing the best available head-to-head odds at TAB to our probabilities, we're talking about a tasty 3.7% edge here.
NBA Best Bets for Monday 18/12
- Suns vs Wizards: Wizards +12.5 ($1.91 at TAB, 6.7% edge)
- Suns vs Wizards: Under 244.5 Points ($1.91 at TAB, 6.4% edge)
- Trail Blazers vs Warriors: Warriors to win ($1.59 at TAB, 5.5% edge)
- Bucks vs Rockets: Bucks to win ($1.45 at Betfair, 5.0% edge)
- Suns vs Wizards: Wizards to win ($6.62 at TAB, 3.7% edge)
MORE: Every NBA Game Simulated 10,000 Times
NBA Games to Bet on Today [December 18, 2023]
- Magic vs Celtics (Monday, 7:00AM)
- Pelicans vs Spurs (Monday, 7:30AM)
- Rockets vs Bucks (Monday, 11:00AM)
- Wizards vs Suns (Monday, 12:00PM)
- Warriors vs Trail Blazers (Monday, 1:00PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to present what our model believes are the correct odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we will say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is the same as fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be suggested at the time because the odds are longer than we think they should be.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we recommend a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Smarter Sports Betting Decisions Today [18/12]
At Stats Insider, we strongly encourage our readers to set limits for themselves and gamble responsibly within their means.
If you decide to use our NBA tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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