Morning Mail: Saturday 11th August

Get set for a monster Super Saturday with over a dozen green smiling faces greeting punters across fourteen fixtures in three sports! 

AFL VALUE

Plenty of value about the AFL today with seven bets identified across the five games. Will also pay to keep a good watch on the weather in Melbourne/Adelaide/Canberra - always value to be found when there is precipitation about!

HAWTHORN V GEELONG

Line has drifted as predicted, would not surprise to see it go out further closer to bounce, but +7.5pts about Hawthorn with a little rain in what looks a last-kick type game, is value (7% edge) as well.

GOLD COAST V RICHMOND

Model LOVES the value about the Suns, particularly at the Line (+64.5 is a 15% edge). It's whether the Suns can contain the Tigers and I expect they can. Like the model's confidence here. 10% edge at the Unders looks solid as well.

PORT V WEST COAST

No Kennedy/Gaff for the Eagles, a little bit of rain and two solid backlines combines well for Unders.

COLLINGWOOD V BRISBANE

Slight edge in the Unders but these two sides can play shootout footy, making me reluctant to get on there. Lions are right in this, I really like the Line but am happy to wait until closer to bounce for a better price.

GWS V ADELAIDE

The model is having none of this game, just no value about at all. Crows at the Line looks solid enough, they need this to stay in touch. 

NRL VALUE

Four big green smiley faces from the model for this super Saturday with the Unders being the favoured play of the day, particularly first up on the Gold Coast with a huge 23% edge! 

TITANS v PANTHERS

The Model has 77% of games finishing Under for a +27% edge and looks to be the play. Worries around Maloney’s body and Cleary’s mental state add more weight to the Under.

MANLY v BULLDOGS

Opportunities to score look few and far between with much of the game played in the centre-third. I like the Under at 42.5 points and so does the Model for an 11% edge.

EELS v DRAGONS

The Model is struggling to find any value here with just a small +4% edge on the Under at 40.5 points.

EPL VALUE

Markets remain pretty tight heading into the first Saturday of the season but there is still some value to be found across six games of Premier League action.

NEWCASTLE v SPURS

Next to zero value across the board. If you can bear to barrack for it, the model has produced a 7.8% chance of the first 0-0 draw between the two sides in 47 years!

FULHAM V CRYSTAL PALACE

That said, teams under Slavisa Jokanovic have tended to start slowly as they adapt to his style, and with as many as five new signings expected to start here, perhaps we shouldn’t expect early fireworks. Crystal Palace also started notoriously slow last season, losing their first seven. On that basis, we think the under 2.5 is a great play.

HUDDERSFIELD V CHELSEA

Alvaro Morata’s pre-season form hasn’t been inspiring to say the least. 1-0 and 2-0 to Chelsea could be worth a small investment here.

WATFORD V BRIGHTON

The model has identified a 2% edge in their favour. I’m much keener on taking the under 2.5 given Brighton’s poor travelling and Watford’s lack of attacking options.

BOURNEMOUTH V CARDIFF

I want to stick my neck out here and say that the over is a solid pick – 25 of Bournemouth’s games in 2017/18 went over 2.5, and their home games averaged three goals each. Furthermore, four of the six meetings between these clubs (since 2012) have gone over.

WOLVES V EVERTON

Watch-only game. Zero value on offer.

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