Melbourne vs Hawthorn Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 10, 2026
Last updated: May 10, 2026, 5:36PM | Published: May 10, 2026, 8:36AM
Melbourne will take on the favoured Hawthorn in AFL Round 10 action at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, beginning at 4:15pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Melbourne vs Hawthorn game, as well as the latest betting odds.
Who Will Win?
Utilising advanced computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Saturday's Melbourne vs Hawthorn AFL match 10,000 times.
Our proven predictive analytics model gives the Hawks a 67% chance of defeating the Demons in Round 10 of the 2026 AFL season.
Melbourne vs Hawthorn: Odds
The latest Bet365 betting odds for Saturday's AFL clash at the Melbourne Cricket Ground are shown below:
- Head to Head: Melbourne $3.50, Hawthorn $1.31
- Line: Melbourne +20.5 ($1.91), Hawthorn -20.5 ($1.91)
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has Melbourne at $3.50 and Hawthorn at $1.31.
The Demons are listed as 20.5-point underdogs against the Hawks, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the favourite Hawks (-20.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
Melbourne vs Hawthorn: Betting Tips
If you see a 🔥, that means you've found one of our best bets of the day across any sport.
These Melbourne vs Hawthorn best bets are based on market-leading simulations and wagering intelligence to bring you the best possible advice 24/7/365.
While the Hawks have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Demons to win is our preferred option because of the 3.9% edge found when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently on offer.
Making use of the edges seen on Stats Insider is one of the keys to achieving long-term success as a punter.
Melbourne vs Hawthorn: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Melbourne vs Hawthorn at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday is Hawthorn winning 90-76.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full coverage of the Melbourne vs Hawthorn match on Saturday, including data-driven predictions and expert tips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Our model updates regularly, so keep checking this page for the latest betting predictions before the Melbourne vs Hawthorn match.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets for the best tips on every AFL match, plus predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Melbourne vs Hawthorn: Essential Details
The AFL Round 10 clash between the Demons and Hawks at the Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to commence at 4:15pm AEST on Saturday.
- Teams: Melbourne vs Hawthorn
- Date: Saturday 16 May 2026
- Time: 4:15pm AEST
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
Our Melbourne vs Hawthorn predictions have been made after running 10,000 data-driven simulations of the match, all curated by our team of skilled data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are accurate and reliable, so that you can make informed decisions with confidence.
If you decide to use our AFL predictions for betting purposes, it's vital to gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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