Melbourne vs Hawthorn Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 10, 2026
Last updated: May 16, 2026, 6:10AM | Published: May 10, 2026, 8:36AM
Melbourne will face the favoured Hawthorn in AFL Round 10 action at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, commencing at 4:15pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's free betting tips for the Melbourne vs Hawthorn game, as well as the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Utilising advanced machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Saturday's Melbourne vs Hawthorn AFL match 10,000 times.
Our independent predictive analytics model currently gives the Hawks a 63% chance of defeating the Demons at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
Melbourne vs Hawthorn: Odds
The current Bet365 betting odds for Saturday's AFL clash at the Melbourne Cricket Ground are listed below:
- Head to Head: Melbourne $2.70, Hawthorn $1.47
- Line: Melbourne +13.5 ($1.91), Hawthorn -13.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 187.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has Melbourne at $2.70 and Hawthorn at $1.47.
The Demons are listed as 13.5-point underdogs against the Hawks, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the favourite Hawks (-13.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 187.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's model, the Demons (+13.5) are predicted to cover the line 54% of the time, while the 187.5-point over/under is expected to stay under 56% of the time.
Melbourne vs Hawthorn: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Melbourne at $2.70 with Bet365
- Line: Melbourne +13.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Under 187.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
These Melbourne vs Hawthorn predictions are based on world-class simulations and betting expertise to bring you the best possible advice every day of the year.
While the Hawks have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Demons to win is our preferred option because of the edge identified when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently available.
Taking advantage of the edges seen on Stats Insider is pivotal to being profitable in the long run.
Melbourne vs Hawthorn: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Melbourne vs Hawthorn at the Melbourne Cricket Ground this Saturday is Hawthorn winning 97-87.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full coverage of the Melbourne vs Hawthorn match on Saturday, including data-driven predictions and live scorestips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Melbourne vs Hawthorn: Goal Scorers
Looking for Melbourne vs Hawthorn goal kicker tips? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Hawthorn's Nick Watson is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Melbourne vs Hawthorn.
Watson has a 10.2% chance of kicking the first goal at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, while the Hawks star has a 97.2% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the game.
Scroll down for the full list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Scorer Tips
Melbourne
- Bayley Fritsch: 6.8% probability
- Kysaiah Pickett: 6.0% probability
- Jacob van Rooyen: 5.5% probability
- Kade Chandler: 3.8% probability
- Harvey Langford: 3.3% probability
Hawthorn
- Nick Watson: 10.2% probability
- Mitch Lewis: 7.5% probability
- Dylan Moore: 5.2% probability
- Calsher Dear: 5.2% probability
- Jack Ginnivan: 5.0% probability
Anytime Goal Scorer Tips
Melbourne
- Bayley Fritsch: 88.2% probability
- Kysaiah Pickett: 86.1% probability
- Jacob van Rooyen: 83.6% probability
- Paddy Cross: 64.2% probability
- Kade Chandler: 64.2% probability
Hawthorn
- Nick Watson: 97.2% probability
- Mitch Lewis: 91.0% probability
- Jack Ginnivan: 81.5% probability
- Calsher Dear: 81.5% probability
- Dylan Moore: 77.9% probability
Our model updates regularly, so keep checking this article for the latest betting tips before the Melbourne vs Hawthorn match.
As always, see our Best Bets for the best tips on every AFL match, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Melbourne vs Hawthorn: Essential Details
The AFL Round 10 clash between the Demons and Hawks at the Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to commence at 4:15pm AEST on Saturday.
- Teams: Melbourne vs Hawthorn
- Date: Saturday 16 May 2026
- Time: 4:15pm AEST
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
Our Melbourne vs Hawthorn predictions are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the match, all curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, so that you can make informed decisions with confidence.
If you decide to use our AFL predictions for betting purposes, it's crucial to gamble responsibly and know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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