Melbourne vs Essendon Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 18, 2024

Melbourne will play Essendon in AFL Round 18 action at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, starting at 7:30pm AEST.

Stats Insider's best betting tips for the Melbourne vs Essendon game, as well as the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips, are featured in this article.

Who Will Win: Melbourne vs Essendon

Using trusted machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Saturday's Melbourne-Essendon AFL match 10,000 times.

Our independent predictive analytics model currently gives the Bombers a 69% chance of defeating the Demons at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.

Melbourne vs Essendon: Odds

The latest betting odds for Saturday's AFL clash at the Melbourne Cricket Ground are listed below:

  • Head to Head: Melbourne $2.60, Essendon $1.61
  • Line: Melbourne +10.5 ($1.90), Essendon -10.5 ($2.04)
  • Total (Over/Under 162.5 Points): Over $1.82, Under $1.89

Odds via Betfair are correct at time of publishing and subject to change. Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Betfair currently has Melbourne at $2.60 and Essendon at $1.61.

The Demons are 10.5-point underdogs against the Bombers, with odds of $1.90 currently on offer at Betfair.

For the favourite Bombers (-10.5) to cover the line, Betfair currently has odds of $2.04.

The over/under for Melbourne vs Essendon sits at 162.5 with TAB, which currently has odds for the over at $1.82 and odds for the under at $1.89.

According to Stats Insider's model, the Bombers (-10.5) have a 53% chance of covering the line, while the 162.5-point over/under has a 58% chance of staying Under.

More: Best Bets for Every AFL Game

Melbourne vs Essendon: Betting Tips

  • Head to Head: Essendon at $1.61 with Betfair (69% probability) 🔥
  • Line: Essendon -10.5 at $2.04 with Betfair (53% probability)
  • Total Points: Under 162.5 at $1.89 with Betfair (58% probability) 🔥

Every time you see a 🔥, you know it's one of Stats Insider's best tips of the day across all sports.

These Melbourne vs Essendon best bets are based on world-class simulations and wagering expertise to help you place more informed bets with your chosen online bookie.

Melbourne vs Essendon: Prediction

Stats Insider's predicted final score for Melbourne vs Essendon at the Melbourne Cricket Ground this Saturday has Essendon winning 85-72.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Stats Insider has full betting coverage of Melbourne vs Essendon on Saturday, including pre-match predictions, the best betting tips, and live win probabilities.

Melbourne vs Essendon: Goal Scorers

Searching for Melbourne vs Essendon goal kicker tips? The data is in.

According to Stats Insider, Essendon's Kyle Langford is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Melbourne vs Essendon.

Langford has a 6.8% chance of kicking the first goal at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, while the Bombers star has an 85.1% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the game.

Scroll down for the complete list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.

First Goal Kicker Tips


  • Bayley Fritsch: 6.2% probability
  • Jacob van Rooyen: 5.7% probability
  • Kysaiah Pickett: 4.8% probability
  • Jake Melksham: 4.6% probability
  • Harrison Petty: 3.2% probability


  • Kyle Langford: 6.8% probability
  • Peter Wright: 6.0% probability
  • Jake Stringer: 5.5% probability
  • Nate Caddy: 5.0% probability
  • Matt Guelfi: 4.1% probability

Anytime Goal Kicker Tips


  • Bayley Fritsch: 83.6% probability
  • Jacob van Rooyen: 78.3% probability
  • Kysaiah Pickett: 73.5% probability
  • Jake Melksham: 70.4% probability
  • Harrison Petty: 58.4% probability


  • Kyle Langford: 85.1% probability
  • Peter Wright: 80.2% probability
  • Jake Stringer: 79.6% probability
  • Nate Caddy: 73.2% probability
  • Matt Guelfi: 69.8% probability

Our model updates regularly, so keep checking this page for the latest betting analysis before the Melbourne vs Essendon game at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.

As always, check out Stats Insider's Best Bets to get the best tips on every AFL match, as well as a host of other sports that we offer predictions on.

More: AFL Player Ratings 2024

Melbourne vs Essendon: Preview

The AFL Round 18 clash between the Demons and Bombers at the Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to commence at 7:30pm AEST on Saturday.

  • Teams: Melbourne vs Essendon
  • Date: Saturday 13 July 2024
  • Time: 7:30pm AEST
  • Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground

All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise stated.

Our Melbourne vs Essendon predictions are the result of 10,000 data-driven simulations of the match, carefully curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.

If you decide to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's vital to gamble responsibly and know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit

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Ryan Leaver

Ryan Leaver is a respected journalist and lifelong sports fan who is widely regarded as one of Australia's most trusted sources for accurate and up-to-date information across various sports. He holds a Bachelor's Degree in Journalism (Sport) from La Trobe University, which strengthens his credibility in the field. Ryan, who previously worked at Triple M, where he provided comprehensive coverage of the AFL and cricket, is renowned for his extensive knowledge and ability to deliver the latest insights.

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