Melbourne vs Essendon Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 14, 2026
Last updated: Jun 13, 2026, 3:05AM | Published: Jun 8, 2026, 8:05AM
Melbourne will take on Essendon in AFL Round 14 action at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, beginning at 1:15pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's best betting tips for the Melbourne vs Essendon game, plus the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Utilising trusted computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Saturday's Melbourne vs Essendon AFL match 10,000 times.
Our proven predictive analytics model gives the Demons an 81% chance of winning against the Bombers at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
Melbourne vs Essendon: Odds
The current Bet365 betting odds for Saturday's AFL clash at the Melbourne Cricket Ground are listed here:
- Head to Head: Melbourne $1.17, Essendon $5.25
- Line: Melbourne -29.5 ($1.91), Essendon +29.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 166.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has Melbourne at $1.17 and Essendon at $5.25.
The Demons are listed as 29.5-point favourites against the Bombers, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the underdog Bombers (+29.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 166.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Bombers (+29.5) are predicted to cover the line 52% of the time, while the 166.5-point over/under is expected to stay under 64% of the time.
Melbourne vs Essendon: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Essendon at $5.25 with Bet365
- Line: Essendon +29.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Under 166.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
When you see a 🔥, you know it's one of our best bets of the day across all sports.
Today's Melbourne vs Essendon predictions are based on world-class modelling and wagering experience to bring you the best possible advice around the clock.
While the Demons have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Bombers to win is our preferred option due to the edge found when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently on offer.
Taking advantage of the edges published here at Stats Insider is pivotal to being a profitable punter in the long run.
Melbourne vs Essendon: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Melbourne vs Essendon at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday is Melbourne winning 93-65.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full coverage of the Melbourne vs Essendon match on Saturday, including data-driven predictions and top betting tips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Melbourne vs Essendon: Goal Scorers
Searching for Melbourne vs Essendon goalscorer tips? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Essendon's Nate Caddy is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Melbourne vs Essendon.
Caddy has a 10.1% chance of kicking the first goal at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, while the Bombers star has a 94.2% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the game.
Scroll down for the full list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Kicker Tips
Melbourne
- Jake Melksham: 6.7% probability
- Bayley Fritsch: 6.6% probability
- Kysaiah Pickett: 6.4% probability
- Jacob van Rooyen: 6.0% probability
- Harvey Langford: 4.9% probability
Essendon
- Nate Caddy: 10.1% probability
- Hussien Achkar: 3.6% probability
- Xavier Duursma: 2.6% probability
- Sullivan Robey: 2.5% probability
- Kyle Langford: 2.4% probability
Anytime Goal Scorer Tips
Melbourne
- Jake Melksham: 82.9% probability
- Bayley Fritsch: 82.9% probability
- Kysaiah Pickett: 79.8% probability
- Jacob van Rooyen: 79.8% probability
- Harvey Langford: 71.7% probability
Essendon
- Nate Caddy: 94.2% probability
- Hussien Achkar: 56.2% probability
- Xavier Duursma: 51.2% probability
- Sullivan Robey: 51.2% probability
- Zach Merrett: 45.8% probability
Our model updates regularly, so refresh this page for the latest betting predictions before the Melbourne vs Essendon match.
As always, see our Best Bets to get betting tips for every AFL match, plus predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Melbourne vs Essendon: Essential Details
The AFL Round 14 clash between the Demons and Bombers at the Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to start at 1:15pm AEST on Saturday.
- Teams: Melbourne vs Essendon
- Date: Saturday 13 June 2026
- Time: 1:15pm AEST
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
Our Melbourne vs Essendon predictions have been made after running 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of skilled data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, giving you the knowledge you need to make informed decisions with confidence.
If you decide to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's vital to gamble responsibly and know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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