Melbourne vs Carlton Prediction and Tips - AFL Finals Week 1 2026
Last updated: Aug 29, 2026, 9:32AM | Published: Aug 23, 2026, 11:25PM
Melbourne will face Carlton in AFL Wildcard action at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, commencing at 7:35pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Melbourne vs Carlton game, along with the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Utilising trusted machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Saturday's Melbourne vs Carlton AFL match 10,000 times.
Our proven predictive analytics model gives the Demons a 51% chance of beating the Blues in Round 25 of the 2026 AFL season.
Melbourne vs Carlton: Odds
The current Bet365 betting odds for Saturday's AFL clash at the Melbourne Cricket Ground are listed here:
- Head to Head: Melbourne $1.95, Carlton $1.87
- Line: Melbourne +1.5 ($1.91), Carlton -1.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 178.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has Melbourne at $1.95 and Carlton at $1.87.
The Demons are listed as 1.5-point underdogs against the Blues, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the favourite Blues (-1.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 178.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's model, the Demons (+1.5) are predicted to cover the line 54% of the time, while the 178.5-point over/under is expected to is considered an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Melbourne vs Carlton: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Melbourne at $1.95 with Bet365
- Line: Melbourne +1.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Over 178.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
Stats Insider's Melbourne vs Carlton predictions are based on complex simulations and betting experience to help you place smarter bets with your chosen online bookie.
Melbourne vs Carlton: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Melbourne vs Carlton at the Melbourne Cricket Ground this Saturday is Melbourne winning 89-88.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full coverage of the Melbourne vs Carlton match on Saturday, including data-driven predictions and live scorestips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Melbourne vs Carlton: Goal Scorers
Looking for Melbourne vs Carlton goal kicker tips? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Carlton's Brodie Kemp is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Melbourne vs Carlton.
Kemp has a 7.4% chance of kicking the first goal at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, while the Blues star has an 89.3% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the match.
Scroll down for the complete list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Kicker Tips
Melbourne
- Bayley Fritsch: 7.1% probability
- Harrison Petty: 5.6% probability
- Jake Melksham: 4.9% probability
- Harry Sharp: 4.1% probability
- Kysaiah Pickett: 3.8% probability
Carlton
- Brodie Kemp: 7.4% probability
- Harry McKay: 6.7% probability
- Ben Ainsworth: 5.5% probability
- Mitch McGovern: 5.5% probability
- Francis Evans: 5.5% probability
Anytime Goal Kicker Tips
Melbourne
- Bayley Fritsch: 87.3% probability
- Harrison Petty: 82.7% probability
- Jake Melksham: 76.4% probability
- Kysaiah Pickett: 72.6% probability
- Harry Sharp: 68.1% probability
Carlton
- Harry McKay: 89.3% probability
- Brodie Kemp: 89.3% probability
- Mitch McGovern: 82.3% probability
- Francis Evans: 82.3% probability
- Ben Ainsworth: 79.1% probability
Remember, our model updates frequently, so refresh this page for the latest betting predictions before the Melbourne vs Carlton match.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets to get the best tips for every AFL match, plus predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Melbourne vs Carlton: Essential Details
The AFL Round 25 clash between the Demons and Blues at the Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to begin at 7:35pm AEST on Saturday.
- Teams: Melbourne vs Carlton
- Date: Saturday 29 August 2026
- Time: 7:35pm AEST
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
Our Melbourne vs Carlton predictions have been made after running 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, all curated by our team of expert data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
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