Melbourne vs Brisbane Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 6, 2026
Last updated: Apr 19, 2026, 5:15AM | Published: Apr 12, 2026, 11:26AM
Melbourne will face the favoured Brisbane in AFL Round 6 action at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Sunday, starting at 3:15pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's free betting tips for the Melbourne vs Brisbane game, plus the latest betting odds.
Who Will Win?
Utilising trusted machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Sunday's Melbourne vs Brisbane AFL match 10,000 times.
Our independent predictive analytics model gives the Lions a 75% chance of winning against the Demons at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
Melbourne vs Brisbane: Odds
The current Bet365 betting odds for Sunday's AFL clash at the Melbourne Cricket Ground are listed here:
- Head to Head: Melbourne $4.50, Brisbane $1.21
- Line: Melbourne +27.5 ($1.91), Brisbane -27.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 190.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has Melbourne at $4.50 and Brisbane at $1.21.
The Demons are listed as 27.5-point underdogs against the Lions, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the favourite Lions (-27.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 190.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Demons (+27.5) are predicted to cover the line 58% of the time, while the 190.5-point over/under is expected to stay under 52% of the time.
Melbourne vs Brisbane: Best Bets
- Head to Head: Melbourne at $4.50 with Bet365
- Line: Melbourne +27.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Under 190.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
When you see a 🔥, that means it's one of our best bets for today across any sport.
Today's Melbourne vs Brisbane predictions are based on world-class simulations and gambling expertise to help you place more informed bets with your chosen online bookie.
While the Lions have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Demons to win is our recommended option due to the 2.8% edge identified when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently available.
Taking advantage of the edges seen here at Stats Insider is crucial to being a profitable sports bettor in the long run.
Melbourne vs Brisbane: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Melbourne vs Brisbane at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Sunday is Brisbane winning 105-83.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full coverage of the Melbourne vs Brisbane match on Sunday, including data-driven predictions and the best betting tips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Remember, our model updates regularly, so keep checking this page for the latest betting analysis before the Melbourne vs Brisbane match.
As always, see our Best Bets for the best tips on every AFL match, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Melbourne vs Brisbane: Essential Details
The AFL Round 6 clash between the Demons and Lions at the Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to commence at 3:15pm AEST on Sunday.
- Teams: Melbourne vs Brisbane
- Date: Sunday 19 April 2026
- Time: 3:15pm AEST
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
Our Melbourne vs Brisbane predictions are the result of 10,000 data-driven simulations of the match, all curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, so that you can make informed decisions with confidence.
If you decide to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's important to gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
More on the AFL
Stats Insider is your go-to source for betting on the AFL, with the latest AFL betting news, tips for every AFL game, and futures odds for the AFL.
