Maple Leafs vs Lightning Prediction and NHL Betting Tips - 28 April 2023
Apr 25, 2023, 7:25AM
The Toronto Maple Leafs play the Tampa Bay Lightning in the 2023 NHL Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena on Friday, beginning at 9:00am AEST.
Stats Insider's top betting tips for Maple Leafs vs Lightning, as well as the latest betting odds and goal scorer tips, are detailed in this article.
Who will win? Maple Leafs vs Lightning
Based on state-of-the-art machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated Friday's Toronto-Tampa Bay NHL Playoffs game 10,000 times.
Our leading predictive analytics model currently gives the Maple Leafs a 57% chance of beating the Lightning at Scotiabank Arena.
More: Maple Leafs vs Lightning Simulated 10K Times
Toronto vs Tampa Bay Current Odds
The latest betting odds in Australia for Friday's NHL game at Scotiabank Arena are shown here:
- Head to Head: Maple Leafs $1.62, Lightning $2.40
- Line: Maple Leafs -1.5 ($2.70), Lightning +1.5 ($1.50)
- Total (Over/Under 6.5 Goals): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, PointsBet currently has the Maple Leafs to win at $1.62. Meanwhile, bet365 currently has the Lightning to win at $2.40.
The Maple Leafs are listed as 1.5-goal favourites against the Lightning, with odds of $2.70 currently available at PointsBet.
For the underdog Lightning (+1.5) to cover the line, bet365 currently has odds of $1.50.
The Over/Under for total goals scored sits at 6.5 with PointsBet, which currently has odds for the Over at $1.91 and odds for the Under at $1.91.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Lightning (+1.5) have a 66% chance of covering the line, while the Over/Under total of 6.5 goals has a 52% chance of staying Under.
More: Best Bets for Every NHL Game
Maple Leafs vs Lightning Best Bets
- Head to Head: Tampa Bay at $2.40 with bet365 (1.4% edge)
- Line: Lightning +1.5 at $1.50 with bet365 (66% probability)
- Total Goals: Under 6.5 at $1.91 with PointsBet (52% probability)
These Maple Leafs vs Lightning best bets are based on world-class simulations and wagering intelligence to help you place better bets with your chosen online bookie.
While the Maple Leafs have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Lightning to win is our preferred option due to the 1.4% edge identified when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the bet365 odds currently available.
Taking advantage of the edges published on Stats Insider is crucial to achieving long-term success as a bettor.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning Prediction
For more information, click or tap See Matchup.
Stats Insider has full coverage of Toronto vs Tampa Bay on Friday, including pre-game predictions, top betting tips, and live scores.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning Player Props
Who will score an anytime goal in Maple Leafs vs Lightning? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Toronto's Auston Matthews is the most likely player to score the first goal in Maple Leafs vs Lightning.
Matthews has an 11.8% chance of scoring the first goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the Maple Leafs star has a 51.1% chance of netting an anytime goal.
Scroll down for the full list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Scorer Tips
Maple Leafs First Goal Scorer Tips
- Auston Matthews: 11.8% probability
- Mitchell Marner: 6.4% probability
- John Tavares: 6.3% probability
- William Nylander: 5.7% probability
- Ryan O'Reilly: 4.2% probability
Lightning First Goal Scorer Tips
- Steven Stamkos: 7.7% probability
- Brayden Point: 7.5% probability
- Nikita Kucherov: 6.2% probability
- Alex Killorn: 4.9% probability
- Brandon Hagel: 3.9% probability
Anytime Goal Scorer Tips
Maple Leafs Anytime Goal Scorer Tips
- Auston Matthews: 51.1% probability
- Mitchell Marner: 36.7% probability
- John Tavares: 32.5% probability
- William Nylander: 30.3% probability
- Ryan O'Reilly: 23.9% probability
Lightning Anytime Goal Scorer Tips
- Brayden Point: 36.8% probability
- Steven Stamkos: 36.3% probability
- Nikita Kucherov: 32.8% probability
- Alex Killorn: 27.4% probability
- Brandon Hagel: 20.7% probability
Our model updates regularly, so bookmark this page for the latest betting analysis before the Toronto vs Tampa Bay match-up at Scotiabank Arena.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets to get the best tips for every NHL game, as well as a host of other sports that we offer predictions on.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning NHL 2023
The game between the Maple Leafs and Lightning in the Stanley Cup Playoffs is scheduled to commence at 9:00am AEST on Friday.
- Game: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning
- Date: Friday 28 April 2023
- Time: 9:00am AEST
- Venue: Scotiabank Arena
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST) unless otherwise stated.
Our tips for Toronto vs. Tampa Bay have been made thanks to 10,000 data-driven simulations of the matchup, providing reliable and accurate NHL predictions to help you make informed decisions.
If you decide to use our NHL tips for betting purposes, it's important that you gamble responsibly and know when to stop. If you need help with gambling-related issues, we recommend visiting gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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