Looking Back: The Unders Heartbreak

7 seconds of no more scoring, that's all we needed from Carlton and Collingwood. SI had the fierce rivals hitting the Unders on 173.5 points 64 percent of the time in simulations.

Unfortunately however the models couldn't account for Collingwood kicking at 80 percent accuracy in front of goal, converting 16 of their 20 shots on goal to finish with 100 points. This put them 18 points over their projected score pregame (although, SI hit Carlton's predicted score perfectly!)

AFL teams normally convert at around 64 percent, but Collingwood's incredible efficiency over the course of the night made life very difficult for punters who had hopped on the Under.

Though the Pies had kicked 10 goals straight through the first and second quarters, Carlton's lack of scoring production (just 22 points) in the first half had the Total at less than a 20 percent chance of being reached at the half.

However in the second half, the Magpies kicked 7 goals and 0 behinds, whilst the Blues piled it on in their comeback attempt, with 8 goals and 6 behinds. Their late surge made the last few minutes nerve-wracking for those hoping for a low scoring affair.

It wasn't to be however, as Charlie Curnow's late goal broke the hearts of loyal SI punters. Sometimes that's just how things go.