Lightning vs Maple Leafs Prediction and NHL Betting Tips - 23 April 2023

Apr 21, 2023, 4:25AM

The Tampa Bay Lightning take on the Toronto Maple Leafs in NHL action at Amalie Arena on Sunday, beginning at 9:00am AEST.

Stats Insider's best betting tips for Lightning vs Maple Leafs, as well as the latest betting odds and goal scorer tips, are detailed in this article.

Who will win? Lightning vs Maple Leafs

Based on advanced computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated Sunday's Tampa Bay-Toronto NHL game 10,000 times.

Our independent predictive analytics model gives the Maple Leafs a 51% chance of beating the Lightning at Amalie Arena.

More: Full Betting Analysis for Lightning vs Maple Leafs

Tampa Bay vs Toronto Current Odds

The current betting odds in Australia for Sunday's NHL game at Amalie Arena are shown here:

Head to Head: Lightning $2.00, Maple Leafs $1.83
Line: Lightning +1.5 ($1.37), Maple Leafs -1.5 ($3.20)
Total (Over/Under 6.5 Goals): Over $1.95, Under $1.91

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.

Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, bet365 currently has the Lightning to win at $2.00. Meanwhile, PointsBet currently has the Maple Leafs to win at $1.83.

The Lightning are listed as 1.5-goal underdogs against the Maple Leafs, with odds of $1.37 currently available at bet365.

For the favourite Maple Leafs (-1.5) to cover the line, PointsBet currently has odds of $3.20.

The Over/Under for total goals scored is set at 6.5 with PointsBet, which currently has odds for the Over at $1.95, while bet365 currently has odds for the Under at $1.91.

According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Lightning (+1.5) have a 70% chance of covering the line, while the 6.5-goal Over/Under has a 53% chance of staying Under.

More: Live Win Probabilities for All Sports

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Best Bets

Head to Head: Tampa Bay at $2.00 with bet365
Line: Maple Leafs -1.5 at $3.20 with PointsBet
Total Goals: Under 6.5 at $1.91 with bet365 (53% probability)

These Lightning vs Maple Leafs betting tips are based on detailed modelling and wagering intelligence to help you place better bets with your chosen online bookie.

And while the Maple Leafs have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Lightning to win is our recommended option due to the edge identified when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the bet365 odds currently on offer.

Taking advantage of the edges published here at Stats Insider is crucial to being a profitable bettor in the long run.

Although the Lightning are more likely to cover the line, our best bet of Maple Leafs -1.5 is based on the probability of that happening, as suggested by our predictive analytics model, and the top odds available.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs NHL Prediction

For more information, click or tap See Matchup.

Stats Insider has full coverage of Tampa Bay vs Toronto on Sunday, including pre-game predictions, free tips, and live win probabilities.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Player Props

Who will score an anytime goal in Lightning vs Maple Leafs? The data is in.

According to Stats Insider, Toronto's Auston Matthews is the most likely player to score the first goal in Lightning vs Maple Leafs.

Matthews has an 11.4% chance of scoring the first goal at Amalie Arena, while the Maple Leafs star has a 49.3% chance of netting an anytime goal.

Scroll down for our full list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.

First Goal Scorer Tips

Lightning First Goal Scorer Tips

Brayden Point: 7.9% probability
Steven Stamkos: 6.7% probability
Nikita Kucherov: 6.4% probability
Alex Killorn: 5.1% probability
Ross Colton: 3.6% probability

Maple Leafs First Goal Scorer Tips

Auston Matthews: 11.4% probability
Mitchell Marner: 6.0% probability
John Tavares: 5.4% probability
William Nylander: 5.3% probability
Ryan O'Reilly: 3.8% probability

Anytime Goal Scorer Tips

Lightning Anytime Goal Scorer Tips

Brayden Point: 39.3% probability
Steven Stamkos: 36.5% probability
Nikita Kucherov: 34.4% probability
Alex Killorn: 26.4% probability
Ross Colton: 20.5% probability

Maple Leafs Anytime Goal Scorer Tips

Auston Matthews: 49.3% probability
Mitchell Marner: 34.1% probability
John Tavares: 32.0% probability
William Nylander: 29.0% probability
Ryan O'Reilly: 21.3% probability

Our model updates frequently, so refresh this article for the latest betting tips before the Tampa Bay vs Toronto match-up at Amalie Arena.

As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets to get betting tips on every NHL game, as well as a host of other sports that we offer predictions on.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs NHL 2023

The match-up between the Lightning and Maple Leafs at Amalie Arena is scheduled to commence at 9:00am AEST on Sunday.

Game: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs
Date: Sunday 23 April 2023
Time: 9:00am AEST
Venue: Amalie Arena

All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST) unless otherwise stated.

More About NHL

Stats Insider is your go-to source for betting on the NHL in Australia, with the latest NHL betting news, tips for every NHL game, and futures odds for the NHL.

Ryan Leaver

Ryan Leaver is a respected journalist and lifelong sports fan who is widely regarded as one of Australia's most trusted sources for accurate and up-to-date information across various sports. He holds a Bachelor's Degree in Journalism (Sport) from La Trobe University, which strengthens his credibility in the field. Ryan, who previously worked at Triple M, where he provided comprehensive coverage of the AFL and cricket, is renowned for his extensive knowledge and ability to deliver the latest insights.