After a week off from the PGA Tour we are rejuvenated and ready to pin seek at TPC Sawgrass for the 2020 Players Championship.

Four gettable Par 5's, plenty of water, slick Bermuda greens and five Par 4’s with plenty of teeth combine to make Sawgrass a very high-variance course where most holes can result in birdie or double (or more) depending on your approach.

Rough is going to be thick, so if you are missing the fairway off the tee or on approach you can forget sticking it close.

Weather and wind wise, it does not look like there are big differences in terms of AM/PM wave with wind likely to get up a little bit stronger both afternoons on Thursday and Friday.

Could be a spot Saturday morning to find a few who are 4-5 shots back because the wind does look like blowing abit stronger after midday Saturday. Something to monitor anyway, let's get into four guys we’ve taken each-way in the outright as well as a couple of First Round Leader bets.

PGA TOUR: Players Championship

Outright Markets

• Adam Scott @ 31.00/7.50  

We found Scotty at a number we liked. He is the prototypical player we are looking for this week in terms of T2G. In his last 8 starts at Sawgrass, he has not finished worse than T38. Last week, he made a mistake at API that cost him the weekend, opting to try and salvage par on the tricky Par 4 2nd  instead of laying up and copping his bogey. He made triple and it tilted him pretty bad, he missed on the number. I think his mindset this week will be one that eliminates that kind of risky play after finding trouble. 

• Justin Rose @ 67.00/17.00

The signs of life were there at API last week for Rosey in terms of T2G, gaining slightly off the tee and 2.6 on approach after three weeks of negative numbers in both stats. Sadly, he lost an amazingly bad 5.6 strokes on the greens which is atypical of him and something we think he will be able to remedy pretty quick. Has good course history here (made last 4 cuts including T8 last year despite an opening round 74!) and most importantly he tends to play the tougher Par 4’s here really well (Ranked #1 Par 4 Scoring 450-500 at this course in this field). Gets a good threesome too with Scotty and Xander. Lot to like including the price. 

• Kevin Na @ 126/32.00

If Na can find the short stuff off the tee at Sawgrass he is live but that’s the big if after losing strokes off the tee in his last nine (yes, nine!) tournaments. Everything else lines up all the way to Sunday afternoon. Loves Bermuda, has been striping his irons (apart from a blip at the Genesis he has averaged almost 3 stroked gained on approach since the American Express!) and the around the green game has come back to him recently. Made 6/7 cuts here since 2012 including a T6 and T7. Doesn’t get the best tee time draw though but if the wind stays down this wont matter.  

• Christiaan Bezuidenhout @ 176.00/44.00

Yes, we’re buying a vowel – ten of them in fact. Scrabble is the real deal and he almost showed it at the API but faded Sunday possibly under Rory pressure, but this course is one he will like even more because he doesn’t need to be as long off the tee. Loves Bermuda and is white hot on approach. He can club down and find fairways here then go pin seeking. Like NA, has not got a great draw if the early waves go out and enjoy a lot less wind, but he is a great wind player so this is not too concerning.

Round 1 Leader

• Dustin Johnson @ 36.00/9.00

Going early off the back nine where he gets three birdy chances first up. Makes a few putts and gets some confidence, the old DJ could return very sharply. His T2G game has been Rory-esque he just hasn’t been able to sink a putt to save his life. Has last week off, hopefully he did a little bit of putting.

• Cameron Tringale @ 151.00/38.00

Gets the early tee time (second group) and has been absolute fire with his approaches last two tournaments averaging over 5 strokes gained on approach. The driver has reverted slightly but if he can hold it together, club down and find some fairways, he can shoot a number to chase here. He plays the Par 4’s really well here and in general.

Also, in case you've missed yesterday's yarn about NRL Futures and Round 1 Bets, get on it.

Did you enjoy this article? Join our free mailing list to get the best content delivered straight to your inbox, or join the conversation by leaving a comment below or on the Stats Insider Twitter or Facebook page.