Heat vs Thunder Prediction and NBA Tips - 18 January 2026
Last updated: Jan 17, 2026, 5:10PM | Published: Jan 17, 2026, 3:06PM
The Miami Heat will face the favoured Oklahoma City Thunder in NBA action at Kaseya Center on Sunday, starting at 12:00pm AEDT.
Led by the likes of Norman Powell, Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo, the Heat are aiming to beat a Thunder team that includes Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren.
This article features Stats Insider's best betting tips for the Heat vs Thunder game, as well as the latest betting odds.
Who Will Win?
Utilising trusted machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Sunday's Miami vs Oklahoma City NBA game 10,000 times.
Our leading predictive analytics model gives the Thunder a 77% chance of defeating the Heat at Kaseya Center.
Heat vs Thunder: Odds
The current betting odds in Australia for Sunday's NBA game at Kaseya Center are shown below:
- Head to Head: Heat $4.50, Thunder $1.22
- Line: Heat +10.5 ($1.91), Thunder -10.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 234.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, the bookmakers currently have the Heat at $4.50 and the Thunder at $1.22.
The Heat are 10.5-point underdogs against the Thunder, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the favourite Thunder (-10.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 234.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Heat (+10.5) are predicted to cover the line 56% of the time, while the 234.5-point over/under is expected to stay under 54% of the time.
Heat vs Thunder: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Miami at $4.50 with Bet365
- Line: Heat +10.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Under 234.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
Stats Insider's Heat vs Thunder betting tips are based on detailed simulations and wagering intelligence to give you the best possible advice 24/7.
While the Thunder have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Heat to win is our recommended option due to the edge found when comparing our data-led probabilities to the odds currently on offer.
Taking advantage of the edges seen here at Stats Insider is crucial to achieving long-term profitability.
Heat vs Thunder: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Heat vs Thunder at Kaseya Center this Sunday is the Thunder winning 120-111.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the Miami vs Oklahoma City game on Sunday, including data-driven predictions and live scorestips.
For more detailed information on this matchup, check out Dimers' Heat vs Thunder prediction, put together by experts in the US.
Our model updates regularly, so bookmark this page for the latest betting tips before the Miami vs Oklahoma City game.
As always, see our Best Bets for betting tips on every NBA game, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Heat vs Thunder: Essential Details
The NBA match-up between the Heat and Thunder at Kaseya Center is scheduled to commence at 12:00pm AEDT on Sunday.
- Teams: Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder
- Date: Sunday 18 January 2026
- Time: 12:00pm AEDT
- Venue: Kaseya Center
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT), unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
Our Miami vs Oklahoma City predictions have been made thanks to 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, all curated by our team of skilled data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our NBA tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you decide to use our NBA predictions for betting purposes, it's crucial to gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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