Head vs Heart: Who Will Be The Kings Of Queensland?
Last updated: Apr 30, 2018, 4:57AM | Published: Apr 27, 2018, 2:22AM
In Head vs Heart, the common sense of data goes head-to-head with unbridled power of passion in a weekly battle here on Stats Insider. Sometimes we'll agree, but sometimes we won't. This week the clash of the Queensland clubs takes place. Can the Suns get back on track and beat the Lions on their own ground?
 | Q-Clash at the Gabba between two teams that got absolutely flogged last weekend, embarrassed even. Heart thinks this game won't be the horror-show that many are predicting. The rivalry and the memories of last weekend's shellackings will see both
sides ripping in for four quarters. Despite their 'efforts' in the West last week, Heart likes the Suns here especially at that H2H price of $2. |
 | Head likes the Suns as well. Despite the market sitting (at the time of writing) at 5.5, SI has them winning 52 percent of the time despite the odds not being in their favour. Another loss and it will be the second time since 2015 Brisbane has started
a season 0-5, and I hope we can also agree on the fact Q-Clash is the worst nickname in all of Australian Sports. |
 | No argument here. Heart is wary of the Lions at home I think they have played the best footy of the two sides this season so far, but if we assume both sides will play to their best then the Suns key position players get the job done. |
 | There is an argument for Brisbane. Stefan Martin has had a superb start to 2018 and if he can get on top of Jarrod Witts and help the Lions win the inside ball, they might have too much outside run for the Suns. Martin's also drawn more free kicks
(21) than any player in the AFL. |
 | Martin's free kick count is skewed due to the ruckmen he's faced this season. Think Witts will more than halve him. Problem the Suns have is their kicking efficiency. They are the highest kick-to-handball team and yet they are one of the worst
by foot, if not THE worst. if they can hit up short targets they will dominate but if not, expect it to zip straight back into the Lions forward line and into the Hands of Zorko/Cameron and co. If the Lions bring the pressure, the Suns kicking will quickly
become their worst enemy. |
 | Dayne Beams averages 30 disposals and 116 Fantasy points per game against Gold Coast, I'd be interested to see if he can start getting back into form. It will be interesting to see how the Suns respond to the first real adversity they've faced
under Stuart Dew, after last week's 80 point loss. Depending on your fancy, Brisbane 1-39 ($2.40) or Gold Coast 1-39 ($2.60) has serious value. |
 | Given the pressure and also the ANZAC factor which should see the game remain very close throughout, the Tribet (either under 16) ($2.60) looks like great value for Heart. Beams was horrible last week and Zorko has been quiet - if those two have games
the Suns are in all sorts... |
 | If Beams and Zorko can get back into form, we might see a repeat of last season's round 17 clash, where the Lions won by 58 points. After two weeks in Perth and having to play the Lions on their home ground, it's going to be a test of these new
Suns to how much they have evolved under their new coach. |
 | Can't disagree, the Over/Under is tricky here because the last five games between these two sides have all been very high scoring, yet all other factors point to a relatively low-scoring affair as the two sides try and wrestle back some self-respect. |
Office Verdict: we agree that the Gold Coast should indeed be wary of Brisbane, and that they'll win by 2 goals. Brisbane 1-39 has value!
