Head vs Heart: Richmond vs Brisbane

For three quarters last week in Adelaide, Brisbane looked amazing. Richmond in contrast have looked like they are yet to wake up to 2018 and call me crazy but i think the Lions can cause a big upset here. Slight rain forecast, captains Beams back - Heart thinks there's a lot to like about the visitors up against the defending premiers.

Head isn't so optimistic about an upset. Richmond have won 11 in a row against Brisbane, and won both of last year's clashes by an average of 41 points. At home on the MCG, it is hard to pick against the reigning Premiers, who took care of Hawthorn with relative ease last week.

Ok ok, look perhaps Heart was getting a little carried away at the prospect of 4 points for the Lions. You're probably right, Dusty will want a response after last week's 'effort'. I do think the 42.5pt Line the Lions are getting is very generous and expect them to hold that Line. Particularly with some showers about Melbourne. Having said that Heart still wants a nibble at that H2H price about the Lions. Correct me if I'm wrong Head but $8's is a value play according to Stats Insider simulations.

The 42.5 line is quite generous, but the Tigers small forwards worked brilliantly once again with Jack Riewoldt last week and will worry the Lions back six. That being said, the Lions cover the spread in 58 percent of simulations. Brisbane are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 away from the GABBA, so that does give a bit of worry.

Based on your confidence combined with SI's simulations, perhaps Richmond 1-39 @ $2.40 offers some value. Dustin Martin 35+ disposals at $5.50 also is intriguing considering his "quiet" day last week. He had 40 touches and kicked two goals against the Lions in round 17 last year. It's going to take a lot for Brisbane to turnaround their 5 game losing streak at the MCG.

With Prestia returning for the Tigers i would not be surprised to see Dusty leading out from the goal square quite abit here. Lions have a few that will tag him in the midfield in Robertson or even Robinson so Heart would be more inclined to put some cach on him bagging 3 goals. But yeh, Heart is quite scared about what Dusty could produce. If the Lions can contain him they will be right in this. Charlie Cameron averaging 3 goals a game is also a nice value play (3+ goals). Heart looking at a couple of exotics to finish - Dusty at $9's for Most Goals looks a great bet especially if conditions are a little wet. Whilst Dayne Zorko to join the 30+ club @4.25 is also excellent value.