Head vs Heart: Can Wests Tigers Avoid A Mauling In Melbourne?
Apr 26, 2018, 6:20AM
In Head vs Heart, the common sense of data goes head-to-head with unbridled power of passion in a weekly battle here on Stats Insider. This week Melbourne legend Billy Slater plays his 300th game for the Storm, whilst Ivan Cleary's Wests Tigers come to town as heavy underdogs. Can they keep Melbourne at bay?
Heart is Jason Oliver, Head is Adam Joseph.
Heart: With Billy Slater playing game 300 in front of a packed home crowd filled with friends and family, my heart is dead set on a big Storm win. They put 36 points on the Bulldogs last week and Slater didn't even play!
Head: AAMI Park has proved to be a fortress for the Storm, and H2H favours the Storm heavily. However SI data indicates that Wests +14.5 is a good bet to be covered. If Russell Packer and the Tigers forward pack can get the edge the way they did against the Roosters, Ivan Cleary's men could make this a close contest.
Heart: That was one good game. The Tigers haven't been any good for years and that's not about to change anytime soon. As defending premiers, the Storm will clean them up.
Head: Tigers have led in four of the past six meetings, including last year's encounter where they led at the half 14-6. If they can force the Storm to grind the same way they did last week against the Roosters, this will be a far closer game than you believe.
Heart: Teams simply don't grind down the Storm. It's would only be a matter of time before the floodgates open up. Josh Addo-Carr is the fastest player in the league and the Tigers won't be able to stop him. It's an Addo-Carr revenge game, too! He will remind the Tigers what they lost by letting him go when he scores a double.
Head: With Tigers covering the spread in 59% of SI's simulations, the Tigers can make this closer than expected. Benji Marshall used his experience to guide Wests with some excellent clock management last week, and he'll need more of that expertise this week.
Heart: Did you not hear? Slater is playing in his 300th game. THAT'S experience and expertise. The Storm will run riot and ride the emotion of Slater's milestone to win by 20-plus points, easy.
Head: SI predicts the Storm will win 25-14, but will fail to cover the -14.5 line in 41 percent of simulations.
