Head vs Heart: Can The Tigers Keep It Rolling?

In Head vs Heart, the common sense of data goes head-to-head with unbridled power of passion in a weekly battle here on Stats Insider. Sometimes we'll agree, but sometimes we won't. This week the Wests Tigers have moved from season-long underdogs to favourites against the Newcastle Knights. What can Mitchell Pearce, Kalyn Ponga and co do to stop them?

	It took a few rounds, but the Heart is madly in love with Ian Cleary's Tigers. Punch the ticket! We're on the bus headed for another Wests win this week.
	Head sees it both ways. SI's simulations has the Tigers winning 19-18 and 53 percent of simulations. That gives the Knights a punchers chance. They're also covering the spread 67 percent of the time. Can the Knights cause an upset?
	Miss me on the upset. If the Storm couldn't upset the Tigers in either of their two chances, these Knights aren't getting the job done. That Tigers -6 Line looks a little dodgy, though. The Heart could fall for the Knights +6 here.
	Agreed, the spread looks good value and although the Tigers sit at 6-0 ATS for the season, this could be the week they don't cover. Knights +6 & Under 41.5 is at $3.40 and looks the value, especially with Unders resulting 60 percent of the time in simulations.
	Sign me up for the Under. The Tigers still aren't rated any higher than average on attack and the Knights aren't much better - if at all. Tigers to win a close one way Under the total. Give me David Nofoaluma to score a try at $2.20 in the process.
	Yep, Unders seems more solid the more you look into it. The Tigers are the best defensive team in the premiership and concede just 11.2 points per game. Unless the Knights leaky defence teams up with the Tigers occasional ability to score 30+ (2 of the past 3 weeks), it's going to happen.
	Only the Titans leak more points than the Knights. With that, the Heart is leaving the Knights Line behind and remaining faithful to the Tigers defence. There shall be no upset in this one.
	It might come down to the battle between Luke Brooks and Mitchell Pearce. Origin spots could be on the line this weekend, and Pearce's chemistry with Kalyn Ponga could prove crucial. Ponga leads the NRL in tackle breaks with 48 in six games, while Pearce has racked up the most kicks (73) and kick metres (2164) for an individual.
	Ponga is Newcastle's only real threat, and Wests know it. Not only that, Elijah Taylor is back this week; young Kalyn isn't breaking his tackle. With him wrapped up, Luke Brooks will create the points for the Tigers and Benji Marshall will drive the bus. All aboard!

Office Verdict: Office agrees on Newcastle +6, we see the Knights covering the spread!