Head vs Heart: Can The Cats Go West And Win?
Last updated: Apr 30, 2018, 5:54AM | Published: Apr 27, 2018, 12:43AM
In Head vs Heart, the common sense of data goes head-to-head with unbridled power of passion in a weekly battle here on Stats Insider. Sometimes we'll agree, but sometimes we won't. This week the Geelong Cats head west for a battle with West Coast. Can they overcome the grueling travel and bounce back after last week's heartbreaking loss?
This is a title
 | Why is nobody rating the Eagles this season? For some reason they're getting a start at home, against a Cats side that have zero key defenders available. Geelong also have a very weakened ruck division. Heart is backing the Eagles to beat the cats
on the back of some Jack Darling/Nic Nat aerial dominance. |
 | The question for the Eagles is how long they can rely on youthful exuberance. Liam Ryan (three goals), Daniel Venables (three) and Jake Waterman (two) helped them last week cover for the absence of Josh Kennedy, whilst Mark LeCras and Jack Darling were
also excellent. Over-Under is 4-0 combined in 2018, and Head likes this to happen again on Sunday. |
 | Their kids have plenty more to give and can trouble the Cats. The Eagles also have a very experienced back six so barring some Pat Dangerfield brilliance I can't see the Cats kicking a winning score. Hurn's disposals from half back into the forward
line have been incredibly damaging, Cats young defenders will be under immense pressure here. Eagles H2H and Line bets both great value, it will be all the Cats superstar on ballers can do to hold back the Eagles. |
 | The Cats kicked a good score last week, and barring some poor defensive personnel decisions (like Zac Guthrie on Roughead in the 4th quarter) it could have been a winning score. Eagles cover the line in 53% of SI's simulations. Nic Nat's ruck
work will be crucial for them going against the Cats star studded midfield. |
 | Nic Nat and Lycett will both be crucial, both for ruckwork nd whilst resting forward. No doubt the Cats will have a few dominant patches as that midfield can't be kept quiet all day, but the Eagles have the experience down back in Hurn, Shepperd,
Barrass and McGovern to stop any bleeding that may occur. I wouldn't be surprised to see this game come right down to the wire, and the closer it is late the more it favours the Eagles. |
 | Geelong will indeed have dominant patches, and they'll need to rely on a deep midfield with their forward and backlines struggling for form through the first two rounds. Despite the aforementioned midfield, the Cats are averaging the fewest inside
50s (42 per game) so far this season. |
 | Amazing given their midfield. I can't touch the Cats without key defenders or a consistent ruckman. Two starts ago the Eagles took it up to Sydney and had it not been for Buddy Franklin's brilliance they would have won. Hawkins is a gun but he
is no Buddy. Heart likes the Eagles to win with Darling and Ryan both dominant up forward. |
 | The Cats haven't travelled well to Perth in recent years either. New stadiums aside they've only won one of their last five trips West. Andrew Gaff has also averaged 31 disposals in his last four against Geelong, so look for him in the player
markets for some value. It looks like the Cats might slip to two losses in a row. |
SI Office Verdict: the office agrees, West Coast to win!
