Head vs Heart: Can Port Get Revenge On West Coast?

In Head vs Heart, the common sense of data goes head-to-head with unbridled power of passion in a weekly battle here on Stats Insider. Sometimes we'll agree, but sometimes we won't. This week Port Adelaide head west to take on the Eagles. Can the Power get revenge for last year's controversial finals heartbreak?

	Heart has been waiting for this game for weeks! Port travelling to the West to take on the side that robbed them of a Semi Final in 2017. The theatre, the tense excitement! Going to be a corker of a game!
	These teams certainly know how to put on a show, as evidenced by last year's final. It's become something of a rivalry between the teams, and West Coast has won 4 of their last 5 games against Port. Those margins? 2, 8 and 10 points (twice). The stage is set.
	I can't get over how Port are $2.17 outsiders with the Ins and Outs of both sides as well as the emotion that Port will be bringing. Power get Ryder (huge!) and Pittard back whilst the Eagles lose speed in Jetta and Sheed. Eagles coming off a tough derby too. Heart really liking the Power H2H.
	This game has No Bet written all over it for Head as far as the H2H, Line and Total markets go. It's simply too close to call, with all markets looking at coin flip results. Both teams are 3-3 ATS and the Eagles are 3-3, Port 2-4 on totals. This all screams stay away, punters.
	Typical Head with your common sense. Port Adelaide didn't play a home semi because of a kick AFTER the siren from Shuey thanks to a soft free kick. That will have been burning all off-season, all pre-season. Ebert has returned to his best form and should limit Gaff whilst Nic Nat's tap work will be curbed by Ryder. All roads lead to Power redemption.
	Ok ok ok... if Head had an arm, and it was twisted, it might say that 55 percent of simulations saw Port cover the line. So that may be the value bet. That being said, Either Team Under 15.5 points at $2.63 might be the place you find supreme value.
	Now we're getting somewhere. Both past history and the emotion around this game scream a close finish and I agree whilst the +6.5pts for Port at the Line is decent value, the Tri-Bet at $2.63 offers the best value of the match. Heart also doesn't mind the Unders in this game given what we've spoken about. Can see long periods of the game where not a lot of scoring takes place.
	This game has a lot of variables, which is what is making Head hesitant. The Eagles are looking for 6 wins in a row for the first time since 2015, but Port have won their last two in Perth against West Coast. Not only that, the Eagles 5 wins have been against non-Top 8 sides. There's just too much warning signs to dive in on the Main Markets.
	I like the Power but i agree, Main Markets are on a knife's edge. Looking quickly at the exotics i like Yeo to join the 25 Disposal Club at $2.20 and a real roughy, Steven Motlop for Most Goals at $51! Whatever happens I can't wait!

Office Verdict: we don't like Port Adelaide on the road, we'll take West Coast to win!