Hawthorn vs North Melbourne Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 21, 2026
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026, 3:32AM | Published: Jul 26, 2026, 10:21AM
Hawthorn will sqaure off with North Melbourne in AFL Round 21 action at York Park on Saturday, beginning at 1:35pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's best betting tips for the Hawthorn vs North Melbourne game, plus the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Based on trusted computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Saturday's Hawthorn vs North Melbourne AFL match 10,000 times.
Our independent predictive analytics model gives the Hawks an 88% chance of winning against the Kangaroos in Round 21 of the 2026 AFL season.
Hawthorn vs North Melbourne: Odds
The current Bet365 betting odds for Saturday's AFL clash at York Park are shown here:
- Head to Head: Hawthorn $1.09, North Melbourne $7.50
- Line: Hawthorn -41.5 ($1.91), North Melbourne +41.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 180.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has Hawthorn at $1.09 and North Melbourne at $7.50.
The Hawks are listed as 41.5-point favourites against the Kangaroos, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the underdog Kangaroos (+41.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 180.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's model, the Kangaroos (+41.5) are predicted to cover the line 53% of the time, while the 180.5-point over/under is expected to go over 53% of the time.
Hawthorn vs North Melbourne: Best Bets
- Head to Head: North Melbourne at $7.50 with Bet365
- Line: N Melbourne +41.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Over 180.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
Today's Hawthorn vs North Melbourne predictions are based on market-leading simulations and betting expertise to bring you the best possible advice around the clock.
While the Hawks have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Kangaroos to win is our recommended option because of the edge identified when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently on offer.
Making use of the edges seen on Stats Insider is crucial to achieving long-term profitability.
Hawthorn vs North Melbourne: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Hawthorn vs North Melbourne at York Park on Saturday is Hawthorn winning 110-71.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the Hawthorn vs North Melbourne match on Saturday, including data-driven predictions and live win probabilitiestips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Hawthorn vs North Melbourne: Goal Kickers
Searching for Hawthorn vs North Melbourne goal kicker tips? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Hawthorn's Jack Gunston is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Hawthorn vs North Melbourne.
Gunston has a 14.1% chance of kicking the first goal at York Park, while the Hawks star has a 99.1% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the game.
Scroll down for our full list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Kicker Tips
Hawthorn
- Jack Gunston: 14.1% probability
- Nick Watson: 10.9% probability
- Mabior Chol: 7.9% probability
- Jack Ginnivan: 4.3% probability
- Dylan Moore: 3.6% probability
North Melbourne
- Nick Larkey: 6.9% probability
- Paul Curtis: 6.7% probability
- Jack Darling: 5.4% probability
- Cooper Trembath: 4.6% probability
- Charlie Spargo: 2.3% probability
Anytime Goal Kicker Tips
Hawthorn
- Jack Gunston: 99.1% probability
- Nick Watson: 96.5% probability
- Mabior Chol: 90.0% probability
- Jack Ginnivan: 72.9% probability
- Dylan Moore: 67.2% probability
North Melbourne
- Nick Larkey: 88.7% probability
- Paul Curtis: 87.1% probability
- Jack Darling: 83.3% probability
- Cooper Trembath: 75.5% probability
- Charlie Spargo: 49.4% probability
Our model updates regularly, so refresh this article for the latest betting analysis before the Hawthorn vs North Melbourne game.
As always, see our Best Bets to get the best tips for every AFL match, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Hawthorn vs North Melbourne: Essential Details
The AFL Round 21 clash between the Hawks and Kangaroos at York Park is scheduled to commence at 1:35pm AEST on Saturday.
- Teams: Hawthorn vs North Melbourne
- Date: Saturday 1 August 2026
- Time: 1:35pm AEST
- Venue: York Park
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
Our Hawthorn vs North Melbourne predictions are the result of 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, all curated by our team of expert data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, so that you can make informed decisions with confidence.
If you choose to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's vital that you gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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