Hawthorn vs GWS Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 16, 2026
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026, 9:32AM | Published: Jun 21, 2026, 6:25AM
Hawthorn will face GWS in AFL Round 16 action at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Friday, commencing at 7:40pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Hawthorn vs GWS game, as well as the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Based on advanced machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Friday's Hawthorn vs GWS AFL match 10,000 times.
Our leading predictive analytics model currently gives the Hawks a 76% chance of beating the Giants in Round 16 of the 2026 AFL season.
Hawthorn vs GWS: Odds
The latest Bet365 betting odds for Friday's AFL clash at the Melbourne Cricket Ground are shown here:
- Head to Head: Hawthorn $1.28, GWS $3.75
- Line: Hawthorn -21.5 ($1.91), GWS +21.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 171.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has Hawthorn at $1.28 and GWS at $3.75.
The Hawks are listed as 21.5-point favourites against the Giants, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the underdog Giants (+21.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 171.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's model, the Hawks (-21.5) are predicted to cover the line 51% of the time, while the 171.5-point over/under is expected to stay under 51% of the time.
Hawthorn vs GWS: Best Bets
- Head to Head: Hawthorn at $1.28 with Bet365
- Line: Hawthorn -21.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Under 171.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
These Hawthorn vs GWS predictions are based on market-leading modelling and betting experience to give you the best possible advice 24/7/365.
Hawthorn vs GWS: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Hawthorn vs GWS at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Friday is Hawthorn prevailing 96-74.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the Hawthorn vs GWS match on Friday, including data-driven predictions and live win probabilitiestips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Hawthorn vs GWS: Goal Scorers
Are you looking for Hawthorn vs GWS goalscorer tips? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Hawthorn's Nick Watson is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Hawthorn vs GWS.
Watson has a 10.6% chance of kicking the first goal at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, while the Hawks star has a 96.7% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the match.
Scroll down for our complete list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Scorer Tips
Hawthorn
- Nick Watson: 10.6% probability
- Mabior Chol: 7.1% probability
- Mitch Lewis: 6.6% probability
- Dylan Moore: 5.5% probability
- Connor Macdonald: 4.4% probability
GWS
- Jake Stringer: 7.4% probability
- Aaron Cadman: 7.0% probability
- Toby Greene: 6.2% probability
- Max Gruzewski: 4.3% probability
- Phoenix Gothard: 4.3% probability
Anytime Goal Kicker Tips
Hawthorn
- Nick Watson: 96.7% probability
- Mabior Chol: 89.5% probability
- Mitch Lewis: 87.3% probability
- Dylan Moore: 78.2% probability
- Connor Macdonald: 74.0% probability
GWS
- Jake Stringer: 88.2% probability
- Aaron Cadman: 86.4% probability
- Toby Greene: 84.3% probability
- Phoenix Gothard: 72.5% probability
- Max Gruzewski: 68.5% probability
Our model updates frequently, so bookmark this page for the latest betting analysis before the Hawthorn vs GWS game.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets to get the best tips on every AFL match, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Hawthorn vs GWS: Essential Details
The AFL Round 16 clash between the Hawks and Giants at the Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to start at 7:40pm AEST on Friday.
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
Our Hawthorn vs GWS predictions have been made after running 10,000 data-driven simulations of the match, all curated by our team of expert data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the knowledge you need to make informed decisions with confidence.
If you decide to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's vital to gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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