Hawthorn vs Geelong Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 4, 2026
Last updated: Apr 6, 2026, 5:10AM | Published: Mar 29, 2026, 8:20AM
Hawthorn will face Geelong in AFL Round 4 action at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Monday, beginning at 3:15pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Hawthorn vs Geelong game, along with the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Based on trusted machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Monday's Hawthorn vs Geelong AFL match 10,000 times.
Our leading predictive analytics model currently gives the Hawks a 60% chance of beating the Cats in Round 4 of the 2026 AFL season.
Hawthorn vs Geelong: Odds
The latest Bet365 betting odds for Monday's AFL clash at the Melbourne Cricket Ground are listed here:
- Head to Head: Hawthorn $1.82, Geelong $2.00
- Line: Hawthorn -3.5 ($1.91), Geelong +3.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 185.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has Hawthorn at $1.82 and Geelong at $2.00.
The Hawks are listed as 3.5-point favourites against the Cats, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the underdog Cats (+3.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 185.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's model, the Hawks (-3.5) are predicted to cover the line 55% of the time, while the 185.5-point over/under is expected to stay under 51% of the time.
Hawthorn vs Geelong: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Hawthorn at $1.82 with Bet365
- Line: Hawthorn -3.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Under 185.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
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Stats Insider's Hawthorn vs Geelong predictions are based on market-leading simulations and gambling expertise to help you place more informed bets with your chosen online bookie.
Hawthorn vs Geelong: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Hawthorn vs Geelong at the Melbourne Cricket Ground this Monday is Hawthorn prevailing 96-88.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full coverage of the Hawthorn vs Geelong match on Monday, including data-driven predictions and live win probabilitiestips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Hawthorn vs Geelong: Goal Scorers
Are you looking for Hawthorn vs Geelong goal kicker tips? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Hawthorn's Jack Gunston is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Hawthorn vs Geelong.
Gunston has an 8.4% chance of kicking the first goal at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, while the Hawks star has a 93.3% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the game.
Scroll down for the full list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Kicker Tips
Hawthorn
- Jack Gunston: 8.4% probability
- Mitch Lewis: 5.5% probability
- Mabior Chol: 5.5% probability
- Nick Watson: 5.1% probability
- Connor Macdonald: 4.4% probability
Geelong
- Jeremy Cameron: 6.4% probability
- Shannon Neale: 4.5% probability
- Shaun Mannagh: 4.5% probability
- Jack Martin: 3.9% probability
- Oliver Henry: 3.6% probability
Anytime Goal Kicker Tips
Hawthorn
- Jack Gunston: 93.3% probability
- Mitch Lewis: 82.9% probability
- Mabior Chol: 82.5% probability
- Nick Watson: 78.7% probability
- Connor Macdonald: 74.3% probability
Geelong
- Jeremy Cameron: 88.5% probability
- Shannon Neale: 74.8% probability
- Shaun Mannagh: 73.4% probability
- Oliver Henry: 69.3% probability
- Jack Martin: 68.9% probability
Our model updates regularly, so refresh this page for the latest betting predictions before the Hawthorn vs Geelong game.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets to get the best tips on every AFL match, plus predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Hawthorn vs Geelong: Essential Details
The AFL Round 4 clash between the Hawks and Cats at the Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to commence at 3:15pm AEST on Monday.
- Teams: Hawthorn vs Geelong
- Date: Monday 6 April 2026
- Time: 3:15pm AEST
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
Our Hawthorn vs Geelong predictions have been made thanks to 10,000 data-driven simulations of the match, all curated by our team of expert data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, so that you can make informed decisions with confidence.
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