Hawthorn vs Essendon Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 20, 2026
Last updated: Jul 25, 2026, 6:10AM | Published: Jul 19, 2026, 11:30AM
Hawthorn will sqaure off with Essendon in AFL Round 20 action at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, starting at 4:15pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Hawthorn vs Essendon game, as well as the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Based on advanced computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Saturday's Hawthorn vs Essendon AFL match 10,000 times.
Our leading predictive analytics model gives the Hawks a 98% chance of defeating the Bombers in Round 20 of the 2026 AFL season.
Hawthorn vs Essendon: Odds
The current Bet365 betting odds for Saturday's AFL clash at the Melbourne Cricket Ground are listed here:
- Head to Head: Hawthorn $1.02, Essendon $15.00
- Line: Hawthorn -60.5 ($1.91), Essendon +60.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 179.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has Hawthorn at $1.02 and Essendon at $15.00.
The Hawks are 60.5-point favourites against the Bombers, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the underdog Bombers (+60.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 179.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's model, the Hawks (-60.5) are predicted to cover the line 59% of the time, while the 179.5-point over/under is expected to stay under 55% of the time.
Hawthorn vs Essendon: Best Bets
- Head to Head: Hawthorn at $1.02 with Bet365
- Line: Hawthorn -60.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Under 179.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
If you see a 🔥, that means it's one of Stats Insider's best bets of the day across any sport.
Today's Hawthorn vs Essendon best bets are based on detailed simulations and betting expertise to provide you with the best possible advice every day of the year.
Hawthorn vs Essendon: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Hawthorn vs Essendon at the Melbourne Cricket Ground this Saturday is Hawthorn winning 122-54.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the Hawthorn vs Essendon match on Saturday, including data-driven predictions and free betting tips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Hawthorn vs Essendon: Goal Scorers
Looking for Hawthorn vs Essendon goalscorer tips? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Hawthorn's Jack Gunston is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Hawthorn vs Essendon.
Gunston has a 12.8% chance of kicking the first goal at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, while the Hawks star has a 98.1% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the game.
Scroll down for our full list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Scorer Tips
Hawthorn
- Jack Gunston: 12.8% probability
- Nick Watson: 10.2% probability
- Mabior Chol: 7.4% probability
- Mitch Lewis: 7.1% probability
- Oliver Greeves: 4.0% probability
Essendon
- Nate Caddy: 7.1% probability
- Peter Wright: 4.8% probability
- Isaac Kako: 2.8% probability
- Hussien Achkar: 2.6% probability
- Sullivan Robey: 2.5% probability
Anytime Goal Scorer Tips
Hawthorn
- Jack Gunston: 98.1% probability
- Nick Watson: 95.5% probability
- Mitch Lewis: 87.5% probability
- Mabior Chol: 87.5% probability
- Oliver Greeves: 66.8% probability
Essendon
- Nate Caddy: 89.0% probability
- Peter Wright: 73.9% probability
- Isaac Kako: 56.8% probability
- Hussien Achkar: 52.4% probability
- Sullivan Robey: 47.6% probability
Our model updates regularly, so keep checking this article for the latest betting tips before the Hawthorn vs Essendon game.
As always, see our Best Bets to get betting tips on every AFL match, plus predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Hawthorn vs Essendon: Essential Details
The AFL Round 20 clash between the Hawks and Bombers at the Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to begin at 4:15pm AEST on Saturday.
- Teams: Hawthorn vs Essendon
- Date: Saturday 25 July 2026
- Time: 4:15pm AEST
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
Our Hawthorn vs Essendon predictions are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the match, carefully curated by our team of skilled data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, so that you can make informed decisions with confidence.
If you choose to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's vital to gamble responsibly and know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
More on the AFL
Stats Insider is your home for betting on the AFL, with the latest AFL betting news, tips for every AFL game, and futures probabilities for the AFL.
