Hawthorn vs Carlton Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 20, 2025
Last updated: Jul 24, 2025, 9:25AM | Published: Jul 21, 2025, 1:10AM
Hawthorn will face Carlton in AFL Round 20 action at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Thursday, starting at 7:30pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Hawthorn vs Carlton game, plus the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Based on trusted computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Thursday's Hawthorn vs Carlton AFL match 10,000 times.
Our proven predictive analytics model currently gives the Hawks an 82% chance of beating the Blues in Round 20 of the 2025 AFL season.
Hawthorn vs Carlton: Odds
The current Bet365 betting odds for Thursday's AFL clash at the Melbourne Cricket Ground are listed here:
- Head to Head: Hawthorn $1.22, Carlton $4.50
- Line: Hawthorn -25.5 ($1.91), Carlton +25.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 161.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has Hawthorn at $1.22 and Carlton at $4.50.
The Hawks are listed as 25.5-point favourites against the Blues, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the underdog Blues (+25.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 161.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's model, the bookmakers have got it right and both Hawthorn and Carlton have a 50% chance of covering the line.
The 161.5-point over/under is expected to stay under 59% of the time.
Hawthorn vs Carlton: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Hawthorn at $1.22 with Bet365
- Line: Carlton +25.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Under 161.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
If you see a 🔥, that means it's one of our best tips for today across all sports.
Stats Insider's Hawthorn vs Carlton best bets are based on world-class simulations and gambling experience to help you place smarter bets with your chosen online bookie.
Hawthorn vs Carlton: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Hawthorn vs Carlton at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Thursday is Hawthorn winning 90-66.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the Hawthorn vs Carlton match on Thursday, including data-driven predictions and live win probabilitiestips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Hawthorn vs Carlton: Goal Scorers
Looking for Hawthorn vs Carlton goal kicker tips? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Hawthorn's Jack Gunston is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Hawthorn vs Carlton.
Gunston has an 8.2% chance of kicking the first goal at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, while the Hawks star has an 89.3% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the match.
Scroll down for the complete list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Scorer Tips
Hawthorn
- Jack Gunston: 8.2% probability
- Mitch Lewis: 8.0% probability
- Nick Watson: 5.5% probability
- Dylan Moore: 5.4% probability
- Calsher Dear: 4.8% probability
Carlton
- Charlie Curnow: 6.0% probability
- Harry McKay: 5.4% probability
- Ashton Moir: 4.0% probability
- Zac Williams: 3.2% probability
- Patrick Cripps: 2.7% probability
Anytime Goal Scorer Tips
Hawthorn
- Jack Gunston: 89.3% probability
- Mitch Lewis: 87.4% probability
- Nick Watson: 77.3% probability
- Dylan Moore: 76.8% probability
- Calsher Dear: 72.2% probability
Carlton
- Charlie Curnow: 81.1% probability
- Harry McKay: 77.5% probability
- Ashton Moir: 67.0% probability
- Zac Williams: 61.0% probability
- Jesse Motlop: 50.4% probability
Remember, our model updates regularly, so keep checking this page for the latest betting analysis before the Hawthorn vs Carlton game.
As always, see our Best Bets to get betting tips on every AFL match, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Hawthorn vs Carlton: Essential Details
The AFL Round 20 clash between the Hawks and Blues at the Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to commence at 7:30pm AEST on Thursday.
- Teams: Hawthorn vs Carlton
- Date: Thursday 24 July 2025
- Time: 7:30pm AEST
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
Our Hawthorn vs Carlton predictions have been made thanks to 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of expert data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are accurate and reliable, so that you can make informed decisions with confidence.
If you decide to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's important to gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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