Hawthorn vs Adelaide Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 11, 2026
Last updated: May 21, 2026, 9:32AM | Published: May 17, 2026, 12:30PM
Hawthorn will face Adelaide in AFL Round 11 action at University of Tasmania Stadium on Thursday, commencing at 7:30pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's free betting tips for the Hawthorn vs Adelaide game, along with the latest betting odds.
Who Will Win?
Based on trusted computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Thursday's Hawthorn vs Adelaide AFL match 10,000 times.
Our independent predictive analytics model gives the Hawks a 65% chance of winning against the Crows at University of Tasmania Stadium.
Hawthorn vs Adelaide: Odds
The current Bet365 betting odds for Thursday's AFL clash at University of Tasmania Stadium are shown below:
- Head to Head: Hawthorn $1.58, Adelaide $2.40
- Line: Hawthorn -9.5 ($1.91), Adelaide +9.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 160.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has Hawthorn at $1.58 and Adelaide at $2.40.
The Hawks are listed as 9.5-point favourites against the Crows, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the underdog Crows (+9.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 160.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Hawks (-9.5) are predicted to cover the line 54% of the time, while the 160.5-point over/under is expected to stay under 52% of the time.
Hawthorn vs Adelaide: Best Bets
- Head to Head: Hawthorn at $1.58 with Bet365
- Line: Hawthorn -9.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Under 160.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
These Hawthorn vs Adelaide predictions are based on world-class modelling and gambling intelligence to bring you the best possible advice around the clock.
Hawthorn vs Adelaide: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Hawthorn vs Adelaide at University of Tasmania Stadium this Thursday is Hawthorn winning 85-73.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full coverage of the Hawthorn vs Adelaide match on Thursday, including data-driven predictions and the best betting tips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Remember, our model updates regularly, so bookmark this page for the latest betting analysis before the Hawthorn vs Adelaide match.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets to get the best tips for every AFL match, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Hawthorn vs Adelaide: Essential Details
The AFL Round 11 clash between the Hawks and Crows at University of Tasmania Stadium is scheduled to commence at 7:30pm AEST on Thursday.
- Teams: Hawthorn vs Adelaide
- Date: Thursday 21 May 2026
- Time: 7:30pm AEST
- Venue: University of Tasmania Stadium
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
Our Hawthorn vs Adelaide predictions are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the match, all curated by our team of skilled data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, so that you can make informed decisions with confidence.
If you choose to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's important that you gamble responsibly and know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
More on the AFL
Stats Insider is your home for betting on the AFL, with the latest AFL betting news, predictions for every AFL game, and futures probabilities for the AFL.
