Happy learned how to punt... Uh-Oh!
Last updated: Sep 19, 2019, 1:13AM | Published: Sep 18, 2019, 11:58PM
After hitting Niemann in the Outright and Top 10 markets last week at the Greenbrier, Club 20 punters are keen to keep that good form rolling and go back to back.
We’ve got a pretty weak field here for this Par 72 birdie-fest at CC Jackson and after many hours of research at the Club 20 Pool Bar, we’ve settled on a magnificent seven for you to get behind for the Sanderson Farms Championship.
Enjoy!
Sungjae Im – Outright @ $22
There’s one thing that Sungjae Im doesn’t like and that’s a week off, so when he had to take two whole weeks away from the tour, it is understandable his irons were a little sketchy on approach at the Greenbrier first up. I expect that to be corrected back to his normal excellent ball striking this week.
Im eats the Par 5’s, he is ranked #1 in this field for Par 5 Scoring and he gets four of them here each and every round. He is also an excellent putter and that combo (par 5 scoring / putting) on a soft course will see him really contend here. He hits his irons even half well this week and he wins it.
Vaughan Taylor – Outright EW @ $41
Last week Niemann was jumping off the stat-sheets and this week it’s Taylor. He is a good putter, hits his approach shots really well and he scores on the Par 5’s. His course history is solid as well (T26, T10, T20, T20 in last four starts) and most importantly, the weakness of this field creates a real chance for Taylor to contend at the pointy end.
Scottie Scheffler – Top 10 @ $4.50
Scottie is coming off a T10 finish and ranked #1 in this field tee-to-green, which means he hits the ball better than everyone playing this week. The flatstick is his only enemy here but these greens are easier than Tour average - he gets easier, less undulating greens so we just need him to draw even on the greens for him to really contend. Great odds!
Luke List – Top 10 @ $11
Luke List had a second place here in 2017. One of the longest off the tee on tour let alone in this field, and most importantly we get him at a course where he doesn’t get punished for an errant tee shot. The guy is not a great putter but our selections this week are predicated on pretty flat, gettable greens so List looks worth the punt in these conditions at these odds.
<ad>
Johnson Wagner – Top 30 @ $6.00
Johnson Wagner has a good course history (T35, T34, T15 last 3 starts) and has gained 3+ strokes on field putting last 3 times here. He made the cut at the Greenbrier last week despite losing almost 3 strokes off the tee AND 2 shots putting which tells me the irons are dialed in. He gets back to his preferred putting surface at a course that is a lot less penal off the tee. Gun putter, course history fits. Like him!
Matt Every – Top 30 @ $7.50
Matt Every missed on the number last week thanks to a triple on the 17th on Thursday. So he actually played really well last week just blew up on one hole. He is 3/3 here (T20, T53, T35 last three seasons) and has gained putting all three times which is noteworthy because he is not a great putter. Bermuda is by far his preferred surface though and coming off a Friday 66 at the Greenbrier, gets a soft course that he has played well at in the past. Juicy odds (some of the Club 20 lads have dipped into Every in the Outright for a lazy 251-1 EW but we’re happy to take the great Top 30 odds and just hope he makes the weekend).
Two-Leg 3-Ball Multi – Higgs/Scheffler @ $4.75
If you can’t wait four days for all these bets, the Club 20 lads have spotted a little two-legger for tonight that’s paying nearly 5’s.
Scheffler is a short price to take care of Haggy and Atwal who both, well they suck. It’s a pretty safe multiplier for mine. Adding Higgs appeals as he gets a similar matchup against two guys who don’t handle the Par 5's well enough, nor hit that crucial 125-175 approach shots well enough to take advantage. Higgs gained everywhere last week.
Also, if you haven't already, check out the pre-tournament predictions from Stats Insider's Golf Model for the probability of every golfer finishing in each of the positions listed. You can also compare the model’s head-to-head probabilities for golfers competing in the current tournament and the probability of a golfer finishing on top of their respective 3-Ball (or Group) in a particular round