Geelong vs Hawthorn Prediction and Tips - AFL Preliminary Final 2025
Last updated: Sep 19, 2025, 9:40AM | Published: Sep 17, 2025, 7:30PM
Geelong will face Hawthorn in AFL Preliminary Final action at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Friday, starting at 7:40pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Geelong vs Hawthorn game, plus the latest betting odds.
Who Will Win?
Using advanced computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Friday's Geelong vs Hawthorn AFL match 10,000 times.
Our leading predictive analytics model currently gives the Cats a 62% chance of defeating the Hawks in their AFL preliminary final clash.
Geelong vs Hawthorn: Odds
The latest Bet365 betting odds for Friday's AFL clash at the Melbourne Cricket Ground are listed here:
- Head to Head: Geelong $1.56, Hawthorn $2.50
- Line: Geelong -9.5 ($1.91), Hawthorn +9.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 166.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has Geelong at $1.56 and Hawthorn at $2.50.
The Cats are 9.5-point favourites against the Hawks, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the underdog Hawks (+9.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 166.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's model, the Hawks (+9.5) are predicted to cover the line 51% of the time, while the 166.5-point over/under is expected to stay under 54% of the time.
Geelong vs Hawthorn: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Geelong at $1.56 with Bet365
- Line: Hawthorn +9.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Under 166.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
Our Geelong vs Hawthorn predictions are based on market-leading modelling and wagering experience to give you the best possible advice 24/7.
Geelong vs Hawthorn: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Geelong vs Hawthorn at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Friday is Geelong winning 86-77.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the Geelong vs Hawthorn match on Friday, including data-driven predictions and expert tips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Remember, our model updates regularly, so keep checking this article for the latest betting analysis before the Geelong vs Hawthorn match.
As always, see our Best Bets for betting tips for every AFL match, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Geelong vs Hawthorn: Essential Details
The AFL Preliminary Final clash between the Cats and Hawks at the Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to commence at 7:40pm AEST on Friday.
- Teams: Geelong vs Hawthorn
- Date: Friday 19 September 2025
- Time: 7:40pm AEST
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
Our Geelong vs Hawthorn predictions have been made thanks to 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, all curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you decide to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's important that you gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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