Geelong vs Hawthorn Prediction and Tips - AFL Preliminary Final 2025

Geelong will take on Hawthorn in AFL Preliminary Final action at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Friday, beginning at 7:40pm AEST.

This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Geelong vs Hawthorn game, along with the latest betting odds.

Who Will Win?

Utilising trusted computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Friday's Geelong vs Hawthorn AFL match 10,000 times.

Our independent predictive analytics model currently gives the Cats a 60% chance of winning against the Hawks at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.

Geelong vs Hawthorn: Odds

The current Bet365 betting odds for Friday's AFL clash at the Melbourne Cricket Ground are listed here:

• Head to Head: Geelong $1.52, Hawthorn $2.55
• Line: Geelong -10.5 ($1.91), Hawthorn +10.5 ($1.91)
• Total (Over/Under 165.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91

Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.

Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has Geelong at $1.52 and Hawthorn at $2.55.

The Cats are 10.5-point favourites against the Hawks, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.

For the underdog Hawks (+10.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.

The over/under for total points scored is set at 165.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.

According to Stats Insider's model, the Hawks (+10.5) are predicted to cover the line 54% of the time, while the 165.5-point over/under is expected to stay under 54% of the time.

Geelong vs Hawthorn: Best Bets

• Head to Head: Hawthorn at $2.55 with Bet365
• Line: Hawthorn +10.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
• Total Points: Under 165.5 at $1.91 with Bet365

Stats Insider's Geelong vs Hawthorn predictions are based on world-class modelling and betting expertise to help you place smarter bets with your chosen online bookie.

While the Cats have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Hawks to win is our recommended option because of the edge identified when comparing our data-led probabilities to the odds currently on offer.

Making use of the edges seen on Stats Insider is crucial to achieving long-term profitability.

Geelong vs Hawthorn: Prediction

Stats Insider's predicted final score for Geelong vs Hawthorn at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Friday is Geelong winning 85-77.

This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.

Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the Geelong vs Hawthorn match on Friday, including data-driven predictions and expert tips.

Our model updates frequently, so refresh this article for the latest betting tips before the Geelong vs Hawthorn match.

As always, see our Best Bets for betting tips for every AFL match, plus predictions for a wide range of other sports.

Geelong vs Hawthorn: Essential Details

The AFL Preliminary Final clash between the Cats and Hawks at the Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to begin at 7:40pm AEST on Friday.

• Teams: Geelong vs Hawthorn
• Date: Friday 19 September 2025
• Time: 7:40pm AEST
• Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground

All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

Our Geelong vs Hawthorn predictions are the result of 10,000 data-driven simulations of the match, carefully curated by our team of skilled data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.

If you choose to use our AFL predictions for betting purposes, it's crucial that you gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

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