Geelong vs Hawthorn Prediction and Tips - AFL Preliminary Final 2025

Geelong will sqaure off with Hawthorn in AFL Preliminary Final action at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Friday, beginning at 7:40pm AEST.

This article features Stats Insider's best betting tips for the Geelong vs Hawthorn game, plus the latest betting odds.

Who Will Win?

Based on trusted computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Friday's Geelong vs Hawthorn AFL match 10,000 times.

Our independent predictive analytics model gives the Cats a 60% chance of defeating the Hawks at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.

Geelong vs Hawthorn: Odds

The current Bet365 betting odds for Friday's AFL clash at the Melbourne Cricket Ground are listed below:

• Head to Head: Geelong $1.58, Hawthorn $2.40
• Line: Geelong -8.5 ($1.91), Hawthorn +8.5 ($1.91)
• Total (Over/Under 164.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91

Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.

Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has Geelong at $1.58 and Hawthorn at $2.40.

The Cats are 8.5-point favourites against the Hawks, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.

For the underdog Hawks (+8.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.

The over/under for total points scored is set at 164.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.

According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Hawks (+8.5) are predicted to cover the line 51% of the time, while the 164.5-point over/under is expected to stay under 52% of the time.

Geelong vs Hawthorn: Best Bets

• Head to Head: Hawthorn at $2.40 with Bet365
• Line: Hawthorn +8.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
• Total Points: Under 164.5 at $1.91 with Bet365

Today's Geelong vs Hawthorn best bets are based on market-leading simulations and wagering intelligence to help you place more informed bets with your chosen online bookie.

While the Cats have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Hawks to win is our recommended option because of the edge identified when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently available.

Making use of the edges published on Stats Insider is crucial to being profitable in the long run.

Geelong vs Hawthorn: Prediction

Stats Insider's predicted final score for Geelong vs Hawthorn at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Friday is Geelong winning 85-77.

This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.

Stats Insider provides full coverage of the Geelong vs Hawthorn match on Friday, including data-driven predictions and expert tips.

Remember, our model updates frequently, so keep checking this page for the latest betting tips before the Geelong vs Hawthorn game.

As always, see our Best Bets to get betting tips for every AFL match, plus predictions for a wide range of other sports.

Geelong vs Hawthorn: Essential Details

The AFL Preliminary Final clash between the Cats and Hawks at the Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to commence at 7:40pm AEST on Friday.

• Teams: Geelong vs Hawthorn
• Date: Friday 19 September 2025
• Time: 7:40pm AEST
• Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground

All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

Our Geelong vs Hawthorn predictions have been made thanks to 10,000 data-driven simulations of the match, all curated by our team of expert data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.

If you choose to use our AFL predictions for betting purposes, it's important to gamble responsibly and know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

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