Geelong vs Essendon Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 22, 2026
Last updated: Aug 8, 2026, 6:25AM | Published: Aug 2, 2026, 10:30AM
Geelong will take on Essendon in AFL Round 22 action at GMHBA Stadium on Saturday, commencing at 4:35pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's top betting tips for the Geelong vs Essendon game, plus the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Utilising advanced computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Saturday's Geelong vs Essendon AFL match 10,000 times.
Our independent predictive analytics model gives the Cats a 99% chance of beating the Bombers in Round 22 of the 2026 AFL season.
Geelong vs Essendon: Odds
The current Bet365 betting odds for Saturday's AFL clash at GMHBA Stadium are shown below:
- Head to Head: Geelong $1.02, Essendon $17.00
- Line: Geelong -63.5 ($1.91), Essendon +63.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 183.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has Geelong at $1.02 and Essendon at $17.00.
The Cats are 63.5-point favourites against the Bombers, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the underdog Bombers (+63.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 183.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's model, the Cats (-63.5) are predicted to cover the line 61% of the time, while the 183.5-point over/under is expected to go over 52% of the time.
Geelong vs Essendon: Best Bets
- Head to Head: Geelong at $1.02 with Bet365
- Line: Geelong -63.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Over 183.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
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Stats Insider's Geelong vs Essendon betting tips are based on world-class modelling and wagering experience to give you the best possible advice around the clock.
Geelong vs Essendon: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Geelong vs Essendon at GMHBA Stadium this Saturday is Geelong winning 128-55.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full coverage of the Geelong vs Essendon match on Saturday, including data-driven predictions and live win probabilitiestips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Geelong vs Essendon: Goal Scorers
Searching for Geelong vs Essendon goalscorer tips? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Geelong's Oliver Henry is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Geelong vs Essendon.
Henry has a 10.0% chance of kicking the first goal at GMHBA Stadium, while the Cats star has a 95.6% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the game.
Scroll down for the complete list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Scorer Tips
Geelong
- Oliver Henry: 10.0% probability
- Shannon Neale: 9.9% probability
- Oliver Dempsey: 7.1% probability
- Jay Polkinghorne: 6.6% probability
- Shaun Mannagh: 6.3% probability
Essendon
- Nate Caddy: 7.3% probability
- Peter Wright: 6.1% probability
- Hussien Achkar: 3.1% probability
- Isaac Kako: 2.4% probability
- Zach Merrett: 1.8% probability
Anytime Goal Scorer Tips
Geelong
- Shannon Neale: 95.6% probability
- Oliver Henry: 95.6% probability
- Shaun Mannagh: 88.7% probability
- Oliver Dempsey: 88.7% probability
- Jay Polkinghorne: 88.7% probability
Essendon
- Nate Caddy: 92.5% probability
- Peter Wright: 86.0% probability
- Hussien Achkar: 60.7% probability
- Isaac Kako: 51.2% probability
- Zach Merrett: 39.8% probability
Remember, our model updates regularly, so bookmark this article for the latest betting analysis before the Geelong vs Essendon game.
As always, see our Best Bets for betting tips for every AFL match, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Geelong vs Essendon: Essential Details
The AFL Round 22 clash between the Cats and Bombers at GMHBA Stadium is scheduled to commence at 4:35pm AEST on Saturday.
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
Our Geelong vs Essendon predictions have been made based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you choose to use our AFL predictions for betting purposes, it's vital to gamble responsibly and know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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