Geelong vs Brisbane Prediction and Tips - AFL Finals Week 1 2025
Last updated: Sep 5, 2025, 9:40AM | Published: Aug 27, 2025, 11:05PM
Geelong will take on Brisbane in AFL Finals Week 1 action at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Friday, starting at 7:40pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Geelong vs Brisbane game, along with the latest betting odds.
Who Will Win?
Using advanced machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Friday's Geelong vs Brisbane AFL match 10,000 times.
Our leading predictive analytics model currently gives the Cats a 67% chance of beating the Lions at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
Geelong vs Brisbane: Odds
The latest Bet365 betting odds for Friday's AFL clash at the Melbourne Cricket Ground are shown here:
- Head to Head: Geelong $1.72, Brisbane $2.18
- Line: Geelong -4.5 ($1.91), Brisbane +4.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 169.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has Geelong at $1.72 and Brisbane at $2.18.
The Cats are 4.5-point favourites against the Lions, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the underdog Lions (+4.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 169.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Cats (-4.5) are predicted to cover the line 60% of the time, while the 169.5-point over/under is expected to stay under 52% of the time.
Geelong vs Brisbane: Best Bets
- Head to Head: Geelong at $1.72 with Bet365
- Line: Geelong -4.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Under 169.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
When you see a 🔥, that means you've found one of Stats Insider's best bets of the day across all sports.
These Geelong vs Brisbane best bets are based on world-class modelling and betting expertise to provide you with the best possible advice every time.
Geelong vs Brisbane: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Geelong vs Brisbane at the Melbourne Cricket Ground this Friday is Geelong winning 90-78.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the Geelong vs Brisbane match on Friday, including data-driven predictions and live scorestips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Remember, our model updates regularly, so refresh this article for the latest betting tips before the Geelong vs Brisbane game.
As always, see our Best Bets to get betting tips on every AFL match, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Geelong vs Brisbane: Essential Details
The AFL Finals clash between the Cats and Lions at the Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to start at 7:40pm AEST on Friday.
- Teams: Geelong vs Brisbane
- Date: Friday 5 September 2025
- Time: 7:40pm AEST
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
Our Geelong vs Brisbane predictions are the result of 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of expert data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you decide to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's crucial to gamble responsibly and know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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