Geelong vs Adelaide Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 3, 2026
Last updated: Mar 25, 2026, 6:35PM | Published: Mar 23, 2026, 1:05AM
Geelong will face Adelaide in AFL Round 3 action at GMHBA Stadium on Thursday, beginning at 7:30pm AEDT.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Geelong vs Adelaide game, plus the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Using advanced computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Thursday's Geelong vs Adelaide AFL match 10,000 times.
Our proven predictive analytics model gives the Cats an 80% chance of beating the Crows in Round 3 of the 2026 AFL season.
Geelong vs Adelaide: Odds
The current Bet365 betting odds for Thursday's AFL clash at GMHBA Stadium are shown below:
- Head to Head: Geelong $1.23, Adelaide $4.20
- Line: Geelong -25.5 ($1.91), Adelaide +25.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 166.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has Geelong at $1.23 and Adelaide at $4.20.
The Cats are listed as 25.5-point favourites against the Crows, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the underdog Crows (+25.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 166.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's model, the Cats (-25.5) are predicted to cover the line 51% of the time, while the 166.5-point over/under is expected to go over 51% of the time.
Geelong vs Adelaide: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Geelong at $1.23 with Bet365
- Line: Geelong -25.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Over 166.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
Today's Geelong vs Adelaide best bets are based on detailed modelling and wagering intelligence to help you place more informed bets with your chosen online bookie.
Geelong vs Adelaide: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Geelong vs Adelaide at GMHBA Stadium this Thursday is Geelong winning 96-70.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full coverage of the Geelong vs Adelaide match on Thursday, including data-driven predictions and top betting tips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Geelong vs Adelaide: Goal Scorers
Are you looking for Geelong vs Adelaide goalscorer tips? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Geelong's Jeremy Cameron is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Geelong vs Adelaide.
Cameron has an 8.8% chance of kicking the first goal at GMHBA Stadium, while the Cats star has a 92.8% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the game.
Scroll down for the full list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Kicker Tips
Geelong
- Jeremy Cameron: 8.8% probability
- Shannon Neale: 5.8% probability
- Shaun Mannagh: 5.4% probability
- Oliver Dempsey: 5.2% probability
- Oliver Henry: 5.1% probability
Adelaide
- Riley Thilthorpe: 4.9% probability
- Izak Rankine: 4.6% probability
- Darcy Fogarty: 4.4% probability
- Ben Keays: 3.8% probability
- Josh Rachele: 3.4% probability
Anytime Goal Kicker Tips
Geelong
- Jeremy Cameron: 92.8% probability
- Shannon Neale: 81.2% probability
- Shaun Mannagh: 79.9% probability
- Oliver Henry: 76.1% probability
- Jack Martin: 75.7% probability
Adelaide
- Riley Thilthorpe: 76.8% probability
- Izak Rankine: 71.9% probability
- Darcy Fogarty: 70.4% probability
- Ben Keays: 68.0% probability
- Josh Rachele: 64.9% probability
Remember, our model updates frequently, so bookmark this page for the latest betting tips before the Geelong vs Adelaide game.
As always, see our Best Bets to get the best tips on every AFL match, plus predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Geelong vs Adelaide: Essential Details
The AFL Round 3 clash between the Cats and Crows at GMHBA Stadium is scheduled to start at 7:30pm AEDT on Thursday.
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT), unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
Our Geelong vs Adelaide predictions have been made thanks to 10,000 data-driven simulations of the match, all curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you decide to use our AFL predictions for betting purposes, it's vital to gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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