Futures, that one time Barcelona missed the top 4, and other weird sims
Last updated: Mar 4, 2021, 3:07AM | Published: Aug 16, 2018, 5:50AM
We have recently published our futures projections for both the English Premier League and the Spanish Primera Division (La Liga). Each set of projections has thrown up a couple of value bets, but when you simulate a season thousands of times, sometimes it's the oddball results that stand out. In this article we'll take a quick look through our futures (vs the bookies), and explore a couple of those strange simulations in more detail.
Premier League
Manchester City are expected to run away with the league, but hold on. TAB have them at $1.60 to win the league after their week 1 victory (interestingly, longer than their preseason $1.50 quote). We make them a 55% chance of winning the league, but you'd need $1.82 or better to make that a decent bet, so I'd stay away from City, or consider laying them if you can bet the other side of that one.
On the winner market then, where does the value lie? We make Liverpool 21.2% second favourites, and would bet them at $5 or better (currently $4.25 at TAB), Manchester United 7.2%, Tottenham 6.5% and Chelsea 5.8%. Of those, only Tottenham at $17.00 appeals. In the Top 4 market, City make it 91.5% of the time, and Liverpool 82.6%, but neither appeals as a betting proposition, and in fact the odds make this a no-bet market. On the relegation side of the ledger, Cardiff (61.9%) and Huddersfield (52%) both look likely to struggle, but both are priced appropriately. Fulham at $4 to go down and a 26.3% probability are the only value we find here.
For those of you taking our Spurs bet, you'll be big fans of sim 1,464, as Spurs ran away with the league recording 32 wins and just the 1 defeat for a total of 101 pts:
In fact, if you're a Spurs Fan, you'd be even happier when you look at the bottom 3, with the East London / Olympic Stadium Hammers finding their way back to the Championship.
For the record, the best season in our simulations came in sim 1,085 with Manchester City running riot, and West Ham managing a top 6 finish, such is the unpredictability of the Premier League:
La Liga
The action in Spain gets underway this weekend, and there's no Top 4 market on offer, with even $1.01 on Real Madrid and Barcelona finishing in the top 4 perhaps being generous. They missed out on the top 4 about once per 2000 simulations in our season simulations, and so were rounded from 99.95% to 100% in our futures table. In the winner market, we have Barcelona leading Real Madrid 49.2% to 37.3%. We'd need $2.10 to bet Barcelona, and $2.75 to bet Real Madrid, but both are considerably shorter. Atletico beat the big boys in 10.6% of our simulations, and we'd bet them at $10+ (currently $9 on TAB so worth a watch).
On the other side of the table, it looks like a rough season for Huesca, who get relegated in 61.3% of simulations. They're $1.60 to go down currently at TAB, and we'd consider betting them at $1.70 or better. Rayo Vallecano (39.2%) and Real Valladolid (43.8%) are our other favourites for the drop, and the $3.25 and $2.75 on offer for those does appeal. Leganes at $3.50 could also be worth a look.
By far the most interesting simulation in Spain was simulation 651, where Barcelona managed an astonishing 16 draws on their way to a 6th placed finish -- the only simulation of the first 2,000 where they finished outside the top 4:
At the bottom, it was a familiar story with Valladolid and Huesca detached from the rest of the league, and Levante falling into the relegation zone on the final day as Getafe survive the drop.
Elsewhere, sim 1,533 was one for the memories of Valencia fans, as they pipped Barcelona in the final 2 weeks of the season to take the title with 99 points:
We'll check in on the futures in both leagues as the season progresses, and hopefully, real life will turn up a story as amazing as some of these simulations. Let the games begin!
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