Friday Forensics: Wait for, then pounce, on the Melbournian madness

Thankfully enough time has now passed that the pain caused by the Demons' ‘effort’ in Alice Springs seems more like that feeling you get after having a really bad chicken parmy – sure it wasn’t a great experience and it does make you a little cautious but some part of your brain keeps telling you that the next one will be delicious!

All brains do that right?

Anyway, time to get amongst the cash again and I’m looking straight at the game in Adelaide between the Crows and the Blues.

Carlton has recalled four quality players in Hardiman, Gee, Loynes and Harris for a match that is both a must-win as well as a redemption game for the club.

The Blues were woeful last weekend but call me crazy, I actually don’t think that was rock bottom.

That might come this week as they come up against what is now a full-strength Adelaide Crows outfit who will be furious about last week’s draw in Sydney which all but puts them out of the finals hunt.

If Brooke Lochland can kick seven goals against the Blues, imagine what Erin Phillips will do!

(Goal Scorer Markets for the Crows/Blues match were not up at time of posting, but Phillips at anything over $2 is a great bet, especially for multipliers - Phillips is currently $10 for Leading Goal Kicker which is well worth a little bet given what she could do to Carlton this weekend).

Phillips up forward will terrorise the Blues but it is the Adelaide half back line which will see the Crows (and my bets) to victory.

It cannot be overstated how badly they missed Cramey in the first two matches, nor how much Cox was missed last Sunday.

Both will play this Saturday, and together with Phillips, they will be the difference, I just can’t see the Blues kicking more than 25-30pts, whereas the Crows look to have 50+ in them here.

One other thing to watch for is the inevitable Melbournian bias that hits H2H markets in the AFLW, particularly late.

Crows H2H is a safe bet but it might pay to wait to snaffle up a better price when Carlton fans wake up Saturday with bulging wallets and footy amnesia.

With those in’s for Carlton I can see them coming in to around the $2.40 mark prior to bounce which will elevate Adelaide up around that $1.60 price, possibly a little higher (have already drifted on CrownBet out to $1.52 from $1.45). Great odds for the defending premiers who not only have more talent but will be very, very angry.

Carlton won’t like them when they are angry.

Safest: Crows H2H @ 1.50+ (watch betting late for best price)

Value: Crows Over 15.5pts @ 2.40

Exotic: Erin Phillips Most Goals in Season @ 10’s.

Multi: Crows Over 15.5pts into Dogs Over 15.5pts @ 5.52