Footy Forensics: Western Bulldogs v Melbourne Demons

Coming off a Round 6 where Stats Insider picked the absolute eyes out of the AFLW I am loathe to deviate from the path of statistical wisdom it is laying for me, but I cannot help but be attracted to the Western Bulldogs in what is effectively an Elimination Final against the Melbourne Demons.

So close is the AFLW ladder that the Dees and Dogs sit first and second respectively, yet because they play each other this weekend one of those sides is extremely likely to miss out on a spot in the GF.

It is this intangible as well as a little something I’m dubbing ‘The Carlton Factor’ that I think combine to make the Bulldogs very appealing in this Saturday night fixture.

But first, let’s take a look at the numbers.

Of the 10,000 match simulations run, Stats Insider predicts Melbourne to win 59% of the time.

Not bad at all given their $2.02 H2H price and last-start form where they embarrassed Carlton and seemingly ignited their forward line into form.

Likewise, the SI model thinks the Dees at the +2.5pt Line is the bet if having a bet at the Line.

Enter the ‘Carlton Factor’. Teams that have played the Blues this season have been incredibly sluggish out of the blocks the week after.

Only twice has a team been leading at half time after having played Carlton the week prior, and those two times were less than a kick.

There has also been a noticeable drop in the form of a team the week after losing a star player to a season-ending or long-term injury (see Mel Hickey!)

Contrast these factors with the Bulldogs who welcome back star forward Katie Brennan (a player Hickey may well have matchup up on) and who will have all been burning all week after losing to the Giants in the fashion they did.

With the Stats Insider Model already predicting an extremely close game (the model is only slightly favouring Melbourne by 0.51) I can’t help but be tempted by the Bulldogs at the $1.80 price.

The Over/Under market offers safer value I feel.

The SI model has predicted a total score of 69.06 which makes the Overs a value bet (edge of 7.85%) and I'm inclined to agree, I can see 70+ points being scored here despite the intensity at the contest and all around the ground.

Unlike the SI model I have been swayed by a few intangible factors that I expect will see the Bulldogs not only win but comfortably cover the +2.5pt Line that the Dees have been given.

All things considered I quite like the Western Bulldogs despite the data pointing to a tight Demons win but if you are unsure a bet such as Either Team Under 16pts looms as a safe option.