Footy Forensics: Tigers v Swans

We've been gifted a rare Thursday night blockbuster to start R15 with Richmond and Sydney, currently 1st v 2nd on the AFL ladder, set to provide a footy feast at Etihad tonight. 

The only thing missing is the value!

Team selection further reinforces just how much of a cracking contest this will be with both sides getting key personnel back.

Richmond gets two big names back in Astbury and Prestia whilst the Swans also receive a boost with the return of McVeigh. 

Under the roof at Etihad so conditions will be perfect for fast, free-flowing footy. Let's check out what the model is saying and whether we can find any value. 

Of the 10,000 simulations run by the Stats Insider model, Richmond are winning 64% of matches which makes them the value play in the H2H market at the $1.55 quote. 

The most likely outcome I can see here is a (very) close contest. Both sides have solid, experienced defensive units and I expect there to be plenty of heat on the footy out of the middle which advantages the defenders. 

Interestingly, SI has a 'big win' for Richmond at 18% and I must say I can certainly see the Tigers being the side to get on top if this is to be a lopsided game, their forward pressure will really challenge the Swans defence and they just looked before the bye to be on the cusp of having one of those really frighteningly good Tigers games. 

Sydney travels better than any team in the comp and will absolutely be treating this as a GF preview, it will be interesting to see who wins this arm wrestle and whether one side eventually lets the forward fifty floodgates open. 

Percentages from SI say it all - no value about at the Line tonight with the 11.5pt spread resulting in 50/50 outcomes in the SI simulations. I'm not backing against the Swans by nearly two goals nor am I backing against the Tigers under two kicks - avoiding this market altogether.

Slight edge here in the Overs appeals in a game that will be fierce early but will break open late. Both sides sweat on turnovers and can play great slingshot footy and in these top of the table clashes, it is always good to remember that they got here because of their disposal and decision making. 

Making good choices especially forward of centre usually results in a shot on goal and both these teams have great conversion rates. 20pts per team per quarter is achievable. 

No bets for the model tonight. I can't help but agree. Were I to have a flutter I'd be looking at the Tigers H2H and then the Overs but in all honesty this game is a great chance for punters to get the black books out for later on in the season - it is rare indeed that we get a glimpse of September footy in June! 

I also can't shake this sense that Richmond will go bang tonight but that means backing against the Swans to go well in a big game away from home which I make a point to never do. 

Shouldering arms tonight. Richmond by 10. 

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