Footy Forensics: Tigers v Saints

If it bleeds...we can kill it! That's the mentality that St Kilda will be adopting heading into this game against Richmond after the Tigers were thumped by West Coast in Perth last Sunday. 

Unfortunately for Saints fans there are no Arnies on their team to execute the game plan! 

For those who have never watched Predator (for shame!) my (brilliant) analogy is trying to tell you that the Saints are in for a very rough day at the office here. 

Stats Insider has the Tigers winning by 40pts which I think is the minimum outcome for them. 

Rance, Riewoldt and Nankervis all named so regardless of the lesser lights swapping around (Higgins, Moore, Menadue in for Lloyd, Townsend and Castagna) the Tigers will be firing on all cylinders. 

They will also be filthy. 

Richmond didn't play poorly last week and were made to look second rate by a team with excellent foot skills, a dominant ruck division and the best key forwards in the comp. 

St Kilda boast none of the above and are in fact a poor kicking side with a dysfunctional forward line and lacklustre ruckman. 

McCartin and Carlisle return along with Austin, McKenzie and White in place of Armitage and Marshall (both omitted), Coffield (managed), Weller and Brown (both injured). 

Of the 10,000 match simulations run by Stats Insider, the Tigers are winning 87% making the Saints a (very) slight value bet in the H2H market. 

Richmond will win this and well so let's look at the Line for some value. 

This is where I think the value play is. Tigers to cover the -43.5pt spread. Stats Insider has it at 47% but I think with the bounce-back factor well and truly in play combined with the complete lack of forward line for the Saints that number is more like 60 in reality. 

I would not be surprised to see a triple figure win here from Richmond. 

I don't see St Kilda scoring a lot of points a week after the Tigers backline was taken to school. Rance will be dominant here. I also think that the Tigers are heading for 100+ points. Totals too close to call, as Stats Insider is indicating. 

Stats Insider has no bets for this game but I'm more than confident the Tigers can cover that line. I will also be having a little flutter on Martin, Caddy and Riewoldt in the goal scoring exotics markets as I think all three of them will have good days in front of the posts. 

Saints unlucky to run into an angry Tigers team here, will be all they can do to not get lapped. 

Richmond by 70+.