Footy Forensics: Tigers v Knights

This time last year, you probably wouldn't bother turning the TV on to watch the Tigers v Knights.

It's a different story in 2018, though.

The West Tigers are exceeding every single expectation anybody had for them to start the season. Now 5-1 with a pair of wins over the defending premiers, it's time to start taking them seriously.

Without reaching quite the same heights as the Tigers, the Knights are rebounding from three consecutive wooden spoons to be 3-3 and tracking along nicely.

For a match between two rebuilding teams that haven't been relevant for longer than both care to remember, it will carry more intrigue than most this weekend.

For punters, in particular.

For the first time this season, the Stats Insider Model is on Wests side H2H.

On the back of 10,000 simulations, the Model has the white, orange and black winning 53% of the time.

At just $1.53 to win, there isn't a lot of value in tipping the Tigers. The $2.55 the Knights are getting seems like it might be worth exploring, but there are better options.

Perhaps over adjusting to their surprise start to the season and current six-game winning streak against the spread, Wests are swallowing a whopping six points to open this one.

They might have the best defence in the NRL, but the Tigers attack isn't much chop. Sure they managed 38 points last week, but they needed 71% of possession in the first half and 61% for the match to get there.

Dare I say it, the Knights won't be gifting them a repeat of those numbers this week.

That's where the Knights +6 Line gets juicy, and the model agrees.

With 67% of the 10,000 simulations returning a Knights cover, taking them at the Line is the first of two suggested bets.

The other is the Under.

With neither side exceptionally potent in attack, there doesn't appear to be enough points in either side for this match to crack 41.5 points.

The Tigers already know what the Knights main point of attack will be.

They're going to feed Kalyn Ponga the ball as a jocky-runner, he's going to try and goosestep the back-rower into turning his shoulder in before sending Lachlan Fitzgibbon one-on-one with the defending half. Do we really think the best defensive team in the NRL isn't going to be prepared for that this week?

Likewise, the Knights know what the Tigers are going to do.

They are second in the NRL in offloads while also making the second-fewest errors. By creating second-phase opportunities and keeping hold of the football, the Tigers tire out opposing defences until they can sneak across the line to score. The referee had better take a spare whistle; there's a good chance the Knights will be forcing him to blow the pea out of at least one as they give away a few penalties to catch in an attempt to catch their breath.

As a result of both clubs' flailing attacking structures, the Model has this match being played out Under the points total 60% of the time.

It always feels good to be in agreement with the model, so with that, celebrate every tackle and scoreless set of six by taking the Knights +6 line with the Under to boot.