Footy Forensics: Tigers v Crows

How will Richmond cover the dual losses of Reece Conca and Nick Vlastuin, and just which Adelaide side will turn up at the MCG tonight? These questions and more loom large in punters minds ahead of this Grand Final replay that teases at value. 

Reece Conca (injured) and Nick Vlastuin (suspended) have been critical for the Tigers this season so how those holes are plugged will be crucial, Corey Ellis and Callum Moore come in for Richmond which makes Jayden Short / Brandon Ellis the most likely distributors off the half back line. 

For Adelaide Tom Lynch returns which is welcome news indeed for Crows supporters. He is an absolutely crucial link in their ball movement patterns. David Mackay (injured) the one to come out. 

Big net win for the Crows at selection. Possibly a few drops of rain about in Melbourne this afternoon/evening but nothing forecast that will impact play too badly. 

SI has the Crows pushing it uphill here (102-71) against the team that thumped them on this ground in that first day in October last year. 

That Line for Adelaide has been creeping in steadily ever since teams dropped but we will get to that later, let's look at the H2H market. 

Of the 10,000 match simulations run by Stats Insider the Tigers are winning 81% which makes them the value play at the $1.25 mark. 

The Tigers have been in white hot form and if Riewoldt plays even close to the game he played last Thursday the Tigers will romp home again. 

Also worth noting is Lynch, Sloane and Crouch are all playing hurt which could really bite in the back half of the game - losing any troops when playing the Tigers who run all day can often cause a scoreboard blowout in the second half. 

Suspect conditions will make it less conducive to contested marking than at Etihad last Thursday but whether it is open or contested, Richmond have the cards to play and win. 

Tigers starting to get a decent edge worth looking at at the Line. After initially opening at -32.5pts early week, they came into -28.5pts post teams and Friday morning the Crows came in further leaving the line at -26.5pts. 

That starts to get mighty tempting but I keep coming back to the loss of Vlastuin in particular who has been their best on ground the last fortnight. His decision making and experience across half back has stopped myriad attacking raids and instantly flicked the Tigers from defence to attack and I just can't see his replacement having that kind of impact. 

Adding to this unknown is perhaps the even greater unknown of Adelaide - will we see the Crows side who was getting spanked by a foward-less Eagles in the first half, or the Crows side that belted up the Eagles in the final term last week?

I suspect that the Tigers will cover that spread but there is not enough value for mine, given the unknowns, to have confidence so staying away. 

Slight 4% edge at the Overs but the prospect of very slight drizzle makes this a wait and watch play. If skies (and radars) are clear prior to bounce I do think the Overs are the value play of the game. 

Tigers will get plenty over the back of the Crows defence who looked all at sea against the Eagles side sans Kennedy and Darling. Richmond score their 90+ tonight and with Lynch back you have to assume the Crows have some points in them. 

As you can see from the above Punting Predictions it is a lean night for punters chasing value with Stats Insider not recommending any bets in the main markets. 

I do agree with their three suggestions above but I'll likely be leaving this game alone unless the radar looks clear in which case I think the Overs is worth a look - all Grand Finals replays are tight and tough early but this one will blow open late. 

Richmond by 30 with Overs the play. 

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