Footy Forensics: Tigers v Cats
Last updated: Aug 3, 2018, 1:48AM | Published: Aug 2, 2018, 11:09PM
Punters' patience will be tested in round 20 and it starts tonight at the MCG as the Tigers host the Cats in a game distinctly lacking in value.
Rhys Stanley being a possible late scratching and a little bit of precipitation forecast to fall this evening are two factors that could generate some value but without those final pieces, it is difficult to like anything about this puzzle.
More on the what if's a little later, let's check out the current (lack of) value forecast by the model.
Can't really say it better than the model has depicted it above - it is not often that both the spread and totals markets are so bereft of value heading into a big Friday night footy game.
Earlier in the week the model had highlighted a little edge at the Over in the totals markets but even with the Cats losing Tom Stewart and the Tigers losing Dion Prestia, two players whose omissions should create more game points, the totals market crunched in from a 3% edge at 157.5pts pre-teams to a 1% edge at 155.5pts post teams.
The largest edge the model has identified comes in the H2H market. Of the 10,000 match simulations run by the Stats insider model, Richmond are winning 71% of games which gives them a 2% edge.
The Geelong 'must-win game' narrative is compelling particularly at the $3 H2H price but they are up against a team that has won 18 straight games at the MCG, one of which was Geelong back in round 13 by 18pts.
The model certainly wants some more value about the Cats before looking at them H2H.
There is quite literally nothing to green smiley face about tonight at the G but as mentioned earlier there remains the chance of late value in this game for two reasons - if decent rain comes prior to bounce and/or if Rhys Stanley is a late out for Geelong.
The former will obviously ensure low-scoring game so radar watchers there is value to be found at the Over if the rain stays away and value to be found at the Under if it arrives - the key is getting on before the market readjusts.
If Stanley is a late out the Tigers look a great chance to cover that -16.5pt spread. It is slowly dropping (was -18.5pts Thursday afternoon) anyway and if Nankervis can give his midfield first use and just be generally dominant against the rookie Abbott around the ground it is very difficult to see Geelong holding that line.
It's all about patience tonight. Have the radar handy, check final teams and then check back in on the Stats Insider match page an hour before bounce to discover how the model has updated to any late changes.
I suspect those edges could creep up into the tempting range (if not the green smiles face range) post final teams.
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