Footy Forensics: Swans v Magpies

Both down on defensive troops and with a shared desire to maintain their hunt for October glory, the Swans and the Pies look on track to justify the value identified at the Over in the totals market this evening in Sydney. 

With Heath Grundy, Zac Jones, Matt Scharenberg and Jeremy Howe all ruled out of tonight's clash both sides are vulnerable defensively and susceptible to being scored against more heavily. 

The Pies, in particular, have reached a critical mass of defenders unavailable with Lynden Dunn also missing. 

As you can see there is only a slight edge at the Over in the totals market of 3% but the model loves it. 

I cannot disagree. 20pts per team per quarter is extremely achievable here for these two sides. 

With no rain about in Sydney, I would not be surprised to see that totals market shift to the high 160's closer to bounce. 

Swans should win this but the Pies are faster and playing better footy. Collingwood has no answers for Buddy though so if he starts well he could drag the Swans back into form. 

Either way, the Over look a great play on a day lacking much value. 

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